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Your World Today

Civil War Brewing in Iraq?; Leaders of U.S., Mexico, Canada End Summit; Chinese Language Lessons Gaining Popularity in U.S.

Aired March 31, 2006 - 12:35   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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... governments. The power vacuum in Bosnia, left by the death of Yugoslav dictator Josip Tito blew the lid off simmering ethnic tensions between Serbs, Croats, Muslims that were exploited by Slobodan Milosevic.

The result, a bloody campaign of ethnic cleansing waged by Serbian government troops and paramilitaries. Iraq is still struggling just to form a central government, allowing sectarian violence to grow since the end of Saddam Hussein's rule. But U.S. officials insist the vast majority of Iraqis are not participating.

AMB. JAMES JEFFRIES, STATE DEPT. COORDINATOR FOR IRAQ: People are committed to top leadership of all of the groups -- from Sistani over to the Kurdish leaders to most of the Sunnis with whom we're dealing -- are committed across the board to resolve these politically.

LABOTT: Poor countries are more prone to civil war, partly because they don't have the resources to quell the violence before it spirals out of control. Experts say that's why Africa has been the stage for so many of these conflicts.

Iraq isn't a poor country, but civil conflict is often about a struggle for resources and wealth. In Iraq, it's the oil factor.

LARRY DIAMOND, HOOVER INSTITUTION: If there is not a national bargain where each major group can know that it's going to get, quote, a "fair share," end quote, of this national treasure -- in other words, a share of the oil wealth roughly proportional to its share of the population -- then they're going to feel aggrieved.

LABOTT: Many experts like Larry Diamond believe Iraq has been in the early stages of civil war since June 2004, when power was formally handed over to the Iraqi interim government. The presence of U.S. troops and foreign terrorists seeking to drive a wedge between ethnic and religious factions has complicated the situation.

DIAMOND: An all-out civil war in Iraq is not going to be a Sunni army, a Shia army and a Kurdish army fighting one another. There are definitely going to be elements of ethnic and sectarian violence, but it's going to be much more decentralized, much more complicated.

LABOTT: A multipronged conflict not unlike Lebanon's. (on camera): Everyone agrees the only thing that's going to save Iraq is a grand political bargain that leads to a broad-based government representing all of Iraq's ethnic and religious groups.

JEFFRIES: A national unity government needs to be stood up as soon as possible that can deal with the underlying political and economic, but particularly political, problems. That is what we're looking for right now.

DIAMOND: If one set of people feel that they, as a group in the country, are not being given a fair deal, a fair shake, some security for their position in the country, it could lead them to or inspire them to greater acts of violence. And then the other group retaliates and responds.

LABOTT: Right now, time is of the essence. A political deal must be struck sooner rather than later, or the price of peace will still be more bloodshed.

Elise Labott, CNN, Washington.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

JONATHAN MANN, CNN ANCHOR: The polls show that a growing number of Americans are opposed to the war in Iraq, whatever you call it.

Well, we spoke to two American thinkers with common roots and opposing views of the conflict. They both are or were members of the group known as the "Neocons," the neoconservatives.

Francis Fukuyama is author of "America at the Crossroads." He supported the war earlier. He is now questioning it, at the very least. Norman Podhoretz is one of the founders of the neocon movement. He's an advocate of the war.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

FRANCIS FUKUYAMA, AUTHOR, "AMERICA AT THE CROSSROADS": It's, of course, a little bit too early to declare Iraq a failure, but I think at the moment it really does not look good. I think that a number of the ideas that animated the war, like a preventive war, the kind of unilateral way that the United States went into it, and then the broader project of bringing democracy to Iraq and the Middle East, I think all had serious flaws in them.

And so when you put it into the final balance sheet, weight it against the cost in terms of lives, money and ultimately the American image and prestige around the world, I think it's not going to come out very positive.

MANN: And Norman Podhoretz, there was an idea -- I know some people don't like the name that we've given it in the media of neoconservatism, but an idea that the United States could use its strength as the world's one superpower as an activist interventionist for good, for human rights and for democracy. Francis Fukuyama and some others believe that that idea is in decline, if it's not entirely dead, because of what's happened in Iran.

NORMAN PODHORETZ, COMMENTARY, EDITOR-AT-LARGE: I think it's very much alive, and I disagree with almost all the points that Frank Fukuyama made. My own view is that the ideas behind the invasion of Iraq, which I see as one of the early theaters or fronts in a larger war that I persist in calling "World War IV." I think the first two stages have been enormous successes, that by historical standards, very low cost in life and treasure.

I think that we have deposed two of the worst regimes on the face of the Earth. We have planted the seeds of democratization in both of those countries, in Afghanistan and Iraq. And I myself predict that the situation in Iraq will continue to improve, and that we will see a stable government, consensual government established there within -- not perfect, but you know, within some -- within a year or so.

MANN: Francis Fukuyama, do you agree it was at a low cost? I mean, people are talking about civilian casualties in the tens of thousands.

FUKUYAMA: Well, there's a lot of different costs. There's the direct costs to the United States at this point probably somewhere over $300 billion. And I think the larger political cost is one that's hard to calculate. I think the idea behind the war was perfectly reasonable as a theory, that if you had a quick transition to democracy in Iraq, it would create a demonstration effect that would have impact all over the Middle East.

But I think now what you're seeing is that as a result of the resistance to American wishes in Iraq, the Islamists are the ones that have the upper hand. And they've been winning elections all over the region. The Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas, the Iranian conservative comeback.

And so I think in the end, one of the further costs of the war is actually shifting of the momentum, the political momentum in that whole region, not towards democracy, but in the direction of an intolerant form of Islamism.

MANN: Well, Francis Fukuyama, I wonder if we could stay with you and just pursue this a little bit more. Are you drawing attention to the war and the ambition as an idea that the United States might actually achieve this kind of thing? Or is the problem, as you see it, that it was a good idea, but it was badly carried out. It was the right war fought, or followed in the wrong way.

FUKUYAMA: Well, I think it was both of those things. I think on the eve of the war what I thought was that this could work, but it was a roll of the dice, where the odds really didn't look very good. And we compounded, I think, that initial miscalculation with a really incomprehensible failure to plan for the aftermath that enormously raised the cost, the total cost, and may ultimately have made the final success impossible to achieve by having extremely optimistic assumptions about what would happen after the fall of Baghdad.

MANN: Norman Podhoretz? PODHORETZ: Well, look, first of all, I would say that the demonstration effect we hoped for has been taking hold, as witnessed even in anti-American radical like Walid Jumblatt, who has credited the American military action in Iraq, which he opposed, for opening up the possibilities of political and reform throughout the region.

FUKUYAMA: One neocon and one neocon no more. Norman Podhoretz and Francis Fukuyama debating the war in Iraq.

ZAIN VERJEE, CNN ANCHOR: Leaders of Mexico, Canada and the United States are trying to end their summit on a positive note, that even though it seems they didn't agree on the big issues on their agenda, we're joined now by Elaine Quijano, who's with the president in Cancun.

Elaine, progress on immigration didn't really go that far?

ELAINE QUIJANO, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, good afternoon to you, Zain. That's exactly right. No major announcements, no big sweeping initiatives announced by these three leaders who held their first trilateral meeting earlier today here in Cancun. What we heard instead, some rather broad brushstrokes, reiterations of where each country stands on a number of positions.

But front and center, of course, for the relations between the United States and Mexico continues to be the issue of illegal immigration, coupled with border security.

And on that point, what we heard from President Bush today is essentially him speaking to two audiences. Of course, here in Mexico being sensitive to the fact that many Mexicans are looking anxiously at the United States Congress, a debate going on about perhaps a guest worker program. President Bush saying that he does, in fact, support the idea of a guest worker program, as we heard him say many times before.

But then again also talking to the domestic audience back home in Washington. As the Senate takes up this very highly charged issue, President Bush saying that not only is America a nation of immigrants, but also one that observes the rule of law. And that has been, of course, a major point of contention. The president within his own party from fellow Republicans receiving criticism for this idea of a temporary guest worker program. Some saying that it is tantamount to amnesty and rewarding people who have entered the United States illegally.

So here in Mexico, of course, they're watching that debate very closely. They're an estimated six million illegal immigrants from Mexico living in the United States, and that has been a major point of concern.

But again, Zain, no major resolution announced on that. On the Canadian side, the question was raised about a new requirement coming up that will require Canadians to present some sort of passport-like document in order to facilitate their travel into the United States. Mr. Bush was asked to explain the necessity of that document, and what he said essentially is that he is simply enforcing what Congress has passed, legislation. He understands it is difficult for Canadians to understand how in fact that will help them get into the United States.

And the new Canadian Prime Minister, Stephen Harper, saying he has also impressed on President Bush how he feels this could, in fact, perhaps hinder or discourage travel and the movement of goods between the two countries.

What President Bush essentially said, though, is he believes that with current technology, he thinks this will strengthen the ties between the two countries, and allow for freer flow of both goods and people -- Zain.

VERJEE: Elaine Quijano in Cancun. Thanks, Elaine.

MANN: Still ahead on YOUR WORLD TODAY.

VERJEE: More parents in the U.S. are opting for Chinese nannies to help their children learn a new language. We'll tell you more details when we come back.

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VERJEE: Welcome back to YOUR WORLD TODAY here on CNN International.

Spanish and French remain the most widely studied languages for U.S. students, at least for now.

MANN: But the world is changing. Watch out for Mandarin Chinese booming in the U.S.

Maggie Lake has a look.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MAGGIE LAKE, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): It's never too early to start preparing your kids for the future. When she arrives home, Hilton Augusta Rogers (ph) squeals "Luk." That's her nickname, Happy, in Mandarin Chinese.

Happy is learning her Chinese characters, right along with the English alphabet, from Shirley, her Chinese-born nanny. Happy's so far along, she sometimes seems to understand Mandarin better than English.

(on camera): How old is she?

UNIDENTIFIED CHILD: (SPEAKING IN FOREIGN LANGUAGE).

SHIRLEY NI, NANNY: She would say she is three years old.

LAKE (voice-over): Shirley was a teacher back in China, so helping Happy comes easy.

NI: I never think she's a Caucasian. It's different. Just treat her like my own child, speak to her in Chinese naturally.

LAKE: Nannies like Shirley are becoming increasingly popular among well-heeled New Yorkers like investment guru Jim Rogers, Happy's father.

JIM ROGERS, INTERNATIONAL INVESTOR: China is the next great country in the world, whether we like it or not. And the best skill I think that I can give her is absolute fluency in Chinese.

LAKE: A Chinese nanny with advanced education who speaks both English and Mandarin can make between $60,000 and $100,000 a year, but top Manhattan agencies say they fill only a fraction of the requests. It's hard to convince qualified Chinese this is a job worth doing.

CLIFF GREENHOUSE, PAVILION AGENCY: They often shy away, and it's not about the money. There is a pride within their society that I need to work hard to break down and enlighten them that this is a very respectable career.

LAKE (on camera): It's not just the wealthy. The Chinese nanny trend is part of a wider phenomenon of Americans wanting their kids to learn Chinese.

(voice-over): One thousand students in Philadelphia's public school system are now taking Mandarin Chinese lessons. And according to a recent survey, nationally, the numbers have risen from about 5,000 high schoolers in 2000 to about 50,000 today.

Philadelphia wants to make inner city schools more attractive to middle class parents.

CHRIS JOHNSON, HIGH SCHOOL PRINCIPAL: We wanted to make our school a viable choice for parents that are moving back into large urban towns.

LAKE: Parents who are hoping to give their kids the skills they need to succeed in a changing world.

Maggie Lake, CNN, New York.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MANN: A programming note. Starting Sunday, CNN has its "Eye on China."

VERJEE: A week-long special offers a look the challenges of protecting the environment and modernizing China's economy.

YOUR WORLD TODAY continues after a short break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

VERJEE: And finally to our "Thank Goodness It's Friday" story from Femi Oke.

MANN: She brings us the tale of an international battle between Peru and Chile because of -- well, call it tuber trouble. Femi.

FEMI OKE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Thank you very much, Jonathan. There are many international disagreements that we cover here on CNN, but this one seems to have completely fallen off our radar until now.

South American neighbors Peru and Chile are arguing about the birthplace of the potato. In Chile, agriculture experts assert the spud is native to Chile's island of Tule (ph). But this week, Peru brought out experts to refute this.

Here's William Roca, head of genetic resources at Peru's International Potato Center.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

WILLIAM ROCA, PERU POTATO CENTER (through translator): The variety of potatoes in Chile is much smaller than Peru's. In Peru, we believe we have somewhere between 3,200 to 3,500 varieties of native potatoes. Chile is talking 250 to 280 native potato species.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

OKE: Senor Roca sounds very serious, and Peru is very serious, indeed. Its Congress passed a bill in 2005, patenting the potato as a Peruvian product. And the country is now threatening to take the case to the United Nations. We will, of course, be following this developing story on CNN -- not. I think it's time for lunch. Back to the newsdesk.

VERJEE: Thanks, Femi.

MANN: Femi Oke.

Let me just end this broadcast with a quick word about everyone's favorite part of YOUR WORLD TODAY, Zain Verjee. Zain is actually going to be leaving us. She's moving to Washington. If you watch this program from the United States, you'll be seeing her more on "THE SITUATION ROOM" and elsewhere. If you watch her from around the world, you'll still see plenty of her. We'll have her on every time we can. But let's all wish her well.

VERJEE: Thank you.

MANN: She leaves us and YOUR WORLD TODAY.

VERJEE: Thank you. I drove you mad, Michael mad, Jim mad. And now I'm going to drive Wolf mad in Washington.

MANN: We'll be back, though, one last time right after this.

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