Return to Transcripts main page

Your World Today

Mending Bitter Sectarian Divide in Iraq; White House Drops 'Stay the Course'; U.N. Says Food Shortages Have Worsened in North Korea Since Nuclear Test

Aired October 24, 2006 - 12:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ZALMAY KHALILZAD, U.S. AMBASSADOR TO IRAQ: Despite the difficult challenges we face, success in Iraq is possible. This is the defining challenge of our error.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HALA GORANI, CNN INTERNATIONAL ANCHOR: The U.S. ambassador to Iraq talks about the future, a future he hopes with more Iraqi troops on the ground and perhaps even more U.S. troops in Baghdad, in the meantime.

JIM CLANCY, CNN INTERNATIONAL ANCHOR: The United Nations sent Jan Pronk to Sudan to help mediate the Darfur mess, and now Khartoum is showing him the door.

GORANI: Politics in a parking lot, a metaphor for how contentious the campaign has become two weeks before the U.S. midterm elections.

CLANCY: And a new advertising campaign challenges our notions of beauty by showing us what really goes on behind the scenes.

Hello and welcome, everyone, to our report broadcast around the globe.

I'm Jim Clancy.

GORANI: I'm Hala Gorani.

From Baghdad to Memphis, Khartoum to Manhattan, wherever you are watching, this is YOUR WORLD TODAY.

CLANCY: U.S. officials say Iraq's government has agreed to a realistic timeline of steps that could finally end years of war.

GORANI: The news comes just two weeks before U.S. elections, as polls show most Americans believe no side is winning in Iraq.

Here's a quick look at the latest.

CLANCY: Now, the top U.S. political and military officials in Iraq say success is possible. They say Iraqi forces should be ready to take over security responsibilities within 12 to 18 months. GORANI: As violence takes more and more lives, a new poll shows only one in five Americans believes that the U.S. is winning the war.

CLANCY: A senator from President Bush's own party calls Iraq on the verge of chaos.

GORANI: Let's begin with a closer look at the steps meant to stem the bloodshed and mend a bitter sectarian divide. They cover everything from disbanding militias, to sharing the profits from Iraq's vast oil reserve.

Michael Ware joins us now from Baghdad with more.

Michael, before we get to you, I would like you to listen in on something the U.S. ambassador to Iraq, Zalmay Khalilzad, said regarding Muqtada al-Sadr, and then I'll have you analyze and react.

Let's listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KHALILZAD: Muqtada al-Sadr has said that they do not represent him and that those who carry weapons without government permission need to be dealt with. He has expressed support for the government, and now the government needs to move forward.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GORANI: Michael, does this sound realistic, given your knowledge on the ground of how these militias operate, that they'll agree to disband and support the current government?

MICHAEL WARE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well to be frank, Hala, no, not at all. I mean, it's a matter of word play, isn't it? I mean, what is a militia?

Muqtada is against militias, but does he consider his forces of the Mahdi army, Jaish al Mahdi, to be a militia? The dominant political faction within the Shia alliance within this government, the party's SCIRI, says that it's militia is not a militia either. The Badr militia says, "We no longer bear arms, and therefore we have developed into a humanitarian organization," which U.S. and British intelligence say has infiltrated security forces and is linked to many other death squads.

So, really, it is, what is a militia and who thinks what that might be -- Hala.

GORANI: And what about this timeline, 12 to 18 months -- we've heard this before. We've heard six months a few years ago -- and how easy is it to predict or difficult it is to predict what will happen in Iraq 18 months from now? Certainly a year and a half ago it was -- it would have been very difficult for us to predict the situation -- what the situation is now -- Michael.

WARE: Oh, absolutely. I mean, it's proven time and time again that Iraq is not something that one can foretell with any kind of accuracy.

We've heard timelines like this so often before. And these benchmarks that have now been set by Ambassador Khalilzad, we've heard each and every one of them just about before as well.

He says the Iraqi government must now step up to these benchmarks. Well, they didn't a year ago. They didn't 18 months ago. The real question is for Ambassador Khalilzad, what happens when these benchmarks are not met -- Hala.

GORANI: Yes, that is the question. What does happen then? Where does that leave not only the U.S. military, but Iraqis themselves?

WARE: Well, that's -- that is a great question. I mean, the government says ultimately they answer back to the people and to the parliament. But, I mean, again, that's just savvy politicking.

The reality is that certain militias and political blocs have carved up power here. Obviously to the exclusion of the Sunnis, a group that the American administration is particularly targeting.

But this government alone in the form of Prime Minister Maliki is relatively powerless and is merely propped up by the Americans. And to a lesser degree, by Muqtada al-Sadr himself, the head of this, you know, militia that the Americans are targeting -- Hala.

GORANI: All right. Michael, one last question there regarding the division of wealth, the division of Iraqi oil.

If this, as the U.S. says, has become more a fight over resources rather than a resistance against what they perceive as U.S. military occupation, if there is a legal framework surrounding the division of resources in Iraq, will that take the sting out of the sectarian conflict or not?

WARE: I very much doubt it, because whatever is on paper doesn't necessarily play out in reality. I mean, you know, the people who control this government or the dominant factions have so far not shown a proclivity to share.

And we've seen the head of SCIRI today during prayers for Eid reiterate his party's push to divide the country. This is the very thing that the Sunnis fear, that the oil will go with the two other partitions.

So this is something that Ambassador Khalilzad hammered, and this is one of the key benchmarks. If it's not met, what happens? He's hinted that an international compact that's being worked on to get the Iraqi government to commit to do what's necessary, he said today, most interestingly, in exchange for the international community's support, hinting that if they don't do this, they are going to start losing international community support.

Does that mean money? That's the real question -- Hala.

GORANI: All right. Michael Ware live in Baghdad.

Thanks, Michael -- Jim.

CLANCY: Well, 90 U.S. soldiers killed so far in the month of October. And the bad news that just keeps coming from Iraq is affecting American public opinion.

A new poll shows nearly two-thirds of those surveyed now oppose the war in Iraq. Opinion Research Corporation interviewed more than a thousand Americans for this survey. The political pressure mounting ahead of an election that will determine who controls the U.S. Congress.

Democrats are seizing the moment, stepping up their criticism of the Bush strategy in Iraq.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JACK REED (D), RHODE ISLAND: The administration, I think, has failed to provide an appropriate strategy to deal with this approach. This government, our government, has to insist that the Iraqis make tough political decisions to improve their security situation, to provide resources for reconstruction and redevelopment, and to complement our military efforts with civilian capacity building and delivery of public services to the people of Iraq.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CLANCY: Now, as Democrats, now some Republicans, even, calling for change, the White House rejects calls for dramatic policy shifts. But it is throwing out a catch phrase it used before and used often.

White House Correspondent Ed Henry joins us now with more on this.

Ed, the president has long been saying "stay the course." Why change the language now?

ED HENRY, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, you're right, Jim, it's not a change in policy, but certainly a change in language. White House aides noting the president stopped using this phrase late August, early September. But you are absolutely right, he had used it for a mantra for weeks, maybe months, "stay the course," "stay the course," and was using it as a weapon against the Democrats, pushing back against what he termed their "cut and run," withdraw troops from Iraq strategy.

Tony Snow, the White House spokesman, saying that the change in language is coming because the president realized this was not really the best way to characterize it, because the commanders on the ground, in the White House's estimation, they are constantly changing tactics, changing strategy to deal with the insurgency and to try to get ahead of the insurgency and not just constantly be reactive. So they do not feel that "stay the course" was really the right term anymore. But obviously there's also a political reality there. We are now two weeks out from a midterm election. Republicans very nervous about losing control of Congress, primarily on the issue of Iraq. So this change of language is certainly coming at an important time for this White House -- Jim.

CLANCY: Well, an important time, indeed. Some analysts taking a look at the -- at the races in America's heartland say Democrats are going to be getting votes not because people are voting for the Democratic candidate, they're going out, casting a ballot against George W. Bush.

What kind of pressure does this put on the president?

HENRY: Big pressure on the president, because you're right, it's not just about the Democrats. It's more about the fellow Republicans.

Just today you had a Republican, Lindsey Graham, who sometimes is a maverick. He does speak his mind. He's not always talking from the White House talking points. But today, basically doing an interview with The Associated Press, saying, "We're on the verge of chaos and the current plan is not working in Iraq."

Then he was asked whether Senator Graham believes Defense Secretary Rumsfeld or some of the military generals should be held accountable. His response, "All of them should be held accountable."

So you can see right there it's not really about the Democrats. It's about the pressure within the president's own party -- Jim.

CLANCY: All right.

Ed Henry there at the White House.

As Always, Ed, thank you very much.

HENRY: Thank you.

CLANCY: Well, the very public divorce battle between former Beatle Paul McCartney and Heather Mills now getting even uglier.

GORANI: That's right, Jim.

Lawyers for Heather Mills McCartney say -- although her name is probably now just Heather Mills -- say she will sue three British newspapers over false, damaging and "immensely upsetting claims" related to her divorce. Mills' lawyers say she has been vilified in the media and is being stalked by photographers.

CLANCY: The conservation group World Wildlife Fund has dire news about the way humans are treating their own planet. They say if current trends hold, by the year 2050 we will be using double the resources that are currently available, and that forests and fisheries may disappear entirely.

GORANI: And other stories making news around the world. No apologies from Pyongyang for its recent nuclear test. But North Korean leader Kim Jong-il did tell Chinese diplomats he has no plans for another test. Chinese officials say Mr. Kim added his country reserves the right to test again if there is an escalation of the current crisis.

CLANCY: Now, the North Korean people are feeling the effects of their leader's nuclear ambitions. The United Nations say food shortages have worsened because international donors withdrew after Pyongyang's nuclear test. This adds to the suffering of people that the U.N. says are often denied the most basic human rights.

Senior U.N. Correspondent Richard Roth is on that story.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

RICHARD ROTH, CNN SR. U.N. CORRESPONDENT (voice over): A. U.N. human rights investigator says North Korea is rounding up people with handicaps, subjecting them to subhuman conditions.

VITIT MUNTARBHRON, SPECIAL RAPPORTEUR FOR NORTH KOREA: I was actually very shocked during the year to find out that those with disabilities have been locked up in prison-like conditions. Particularly those who are psychologically impaired.

ROTH: But the investigator has not personally witnessed any abuses, barred from entering North Korea by the government. Instead, the Thai professor, like many of the U.N.'s special human rights probers, must rely on reports compiled from other sources, such as South Korean government think tanks. He says there are also reports from North Korean defectors that there are prison camps for dwarves, who may marry but aren't allowed to have children.

MUNTARBHRON: My conclusion in the report came very much from interviews with many refugees, and even doctors, as I concluded very sadly those with disabilities had been subjected to subhuman conditions, being locked up in various wards and so on, jails, detention.

ROTH: The human rights official briefed the United Nations human rights panel in New York last week. A North Korean delegate was dismissive.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The anti-DPRK resolutions are only political plot documents that serve the U.S. hostile policy against the DPRK. And they have nothing to do with genuine human rights.

ROTH (on camera): The U.N.'s expert recommends North Korea liberalize its laws, teach police to respect human rights, and allow political dissent. But it's hard to imagine such an isolated and repressive country now under pressure of sanctions loosening its grip on its own people.

Richard Roth, CNN, the United Nations.

(END VIDEOTAPE) GORANI: A lot more ahead on YOUR WORLD TODAY.

CLANCY: A new advertising campaign takes a look at effortless beauty, as it's called.

GORANI: It really shows the enormous effort that goes into creating a picture.

CLANCY: And then with the U.S. midterm elections just two weeks away, one Senate candidate crashes his opponent's news conference for an impromptu drive-by debate I think we'll call it.

GORANI: And the people of Darfur may well pay the penalty when Sudan gives a U.N. envoy sent to mediate the crisis just three days to leave the country.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CLANCY: Hello and welcome back. You're watching YOUR WORLD TODAY.

GORANI: Well, we are bringing CNN's viewers around the globe up to speed on the most important international stories of the day. And we start in Gaza for this segment.

A journalist has been kidnapped there. A Spanish photographer working for The Associated Press was abducted Tuesday morning.

Four Palestinian gunmen grabbed Emilio Morenatti (ph) as he left his apartment heading for his car. There's been no claim of responsibility. Palestinian militants have kidnapped foreign journalists before.

The Palestinian prime minister, Ismail Haniyeh, says his government will exert maximum efforts to release the photographer. Spanish officials are also working on his release.

CLANCY: Lawmakers in the state of U.S. state of Colorado pressuring Sudan's government to stop human rights abuses in Darfur. Now, they proposed a bill that would bar most state investments in Sudanese companies. California passed similar legislation last month.

As lawmakers, activists and celebrities speak out, Sudan is striking back. It expelled a very vocal diplomat.

Jeff Koinange introduces us.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JEFF KOINANGE, CNN AFRICA CORRESPONDENT (voice over): When the rest of the world was sitting quietly by and Darfur was reaching a boiling point, one man kept waving the red flag. That man was Jan Pronk, the United Nations highest ranking diplomat in Sudan. He insisted then, as he does now, that the time for diplomacy in Darfur is long past.

JAN PRONK, U.N. SPECIAL ENVOY TO SUDAN: More than two million people in camps. You can say that Darfur has been cleansed.

KOINANGE: He's never been one to mince his words when it comes to the slow reaction of the international community to what the U.N. calls the world's worst humanitarian crisis.

PRONK: The international community took action too little and too late.

KOINANGE: Too late, he says, to save the lives of hundreds of thousands. Maybe even millions.

PRONK: For many people it is too late. They cannot be salvaged anymore because they have been killed, they have been raped. Atrocities have taken place, and there should be put an end to the impunity which is dominating in this part of the country.

KOINANGE: As for the fragile peace agreement signed more than five months ago...

PRONK: It's dead now, or nearly dead, because the parties are not living up to their own agreement. Since the peace agreement, the situation is worse than before the peace agreement. So that is indeed a desperate situation.

KOINANGE: And when it comes to the Sudanese government, Pronk becomes the atypical diplomat, speaking his mind.

PRONK: The plight of the people in Darfur is the making of the Sudanese. The people have been forgotten, neglected, marginalized. And the government is responsible for using the army, which is a rather disciplined army (INAUDIBLE) -- but Arab militia which kills and kills, and do not abide to any rule, let alone human rights rules. So it's their making.

KOINANGE: So it comes as no surprise that his latest comments, in the form of a blog saying the Sudanese government suffered recent heavy losses in Darfur and that its troops are demoralized, has angered his hosts to the point of showing Pronk the door. The first diplomat to be expelled from Sudan since the Darfur crisis began.

ALI SADIQ, SUDANESE FOREIGN MINISTRY SPOKESMAN: We consider such (INAUDIBLE) with the mission of the -- of the representative of the secretary-general.

KOINANGE: The United States was quick to respond, calling it "unfortunate in the extreme."

CONDOLEEZZA RICE, SECRETARY OF STATE: The situation in Darfur and in Sudan is deteriorating, and the international community needs very much to be able to act there.

KOINANGE: Pronk has always been adamant about completing his mission in Sudan at any cost. And he still insists the world needs to continue applying pressure on the Sudanese government before the window of opportunity slams shut. PRONK: We know five minutes before midnight the coming three months are crucial, deadline after deadline. This is the last one. We need a transition to a U.N. force I would say on the first of January.

KOINANGE: The first of January now seems like a pipe dream. And now with the U.N.'s most outspoken diplomat out of the way, the future of millions of Darfur's desperately displaced people hangs in the balance.

Jeff Koinange, CNN, Johannesburg.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

All right. Let's turn our attention now to businesses news. And the world's biggest retailer is making some big changes.

Gerri Willis joins us from New York with those details.

(BUSINESS REPORT)

CLANCY: All right. Still ahead right here on YOUR WORLD TODAY, a Tennessee Senate candidate, well, it's a drive-by debate -- Hala.

GORANI: All right. Rolling up in his campaign bus in the middle of his opponent's news conference.

The latest on the upcoming midterm elections in the U.S. after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: Hi there. I'm Heidi Collins at the CNN Center in Atlanta.

More of YOUR WORLD TODAY in just a few minutes, but first a check on stories making headlines in the United States.

Republican congressman Tom Reynolds of New York goes before the Ethics Committee. The panel wants to know who knew what, when about former Republican congressman Mark Foley's inappropriate e-mails to male pages. Reynolds has said he told House Speaker Dennis Hastert about Foley last spring.

We are looking at some live pictures now of him leaving the Ethics Committee, as you see there on your screen.

Meanwhile, Hastert says he doesn't remember that conversation and only learned of Foley's e-mails last month. Hastert is expected to be questioned by the ethics panel some time this week.

Control of Congress, that's at issue in the midterm elections, now just two weeks from today. Republican and Democratic officials are fine-tuning their strategies, using key issues like the war on Iraq. and the U.S. economy to attract voters' attention.

Want to go back to Capitol Hill. We are actually listening in, or have the opportunity to hear what Tom Reynolds has to say.

(JOINED IN PROGRESS)

REP. TOM REYNOLDS (R), NEW YORK: ... and tell you what I know. But the committee has asked us not to share the substance of our discussion. I would only add a full and fair investigation of the facts is vital to ensuring the continued integrity of this institution, which is why I strongly encourage any of my colleagues who have information that may be of relevance to bring it to the committee's attention at once.

Thank you very much.

COLLINS: So there you have it. Representative Tom Reynolds commenting after testifying before the House Ethics Committee.

And for the very latest breaking political news, you can always check our updates throughout the day on the CNN political ticker at cnn.com/ticker. All politics, all the time.

America's so-called broken government. We're taking an in-depth look at that issue all week long here on CNN.

Tonight, "Two Left Feet". Our senior political correspondent, Candy Crowley, takes a look at the Democrat Party and its problems. That will be come your way 8:00 Eastern, and something you will see only on CNN.

Meanwhile, a search for answers in Baghdad. Was a U.S. soldier kidnapped or did he abandon his duties?

The U.S. military's official line is, whereabouts unknown, as American forces conduct door-to-door searches in Baghdad. The missing soldier has not been identified, but CNN has learned he is an Iraqi- American working as a translator.

Here's a wakeup call now for parents. It comes from Philadelphia, where police say a dad pulled a gun on his son's football coach because his son wasn't getting enough playing time. The age of those kids, 5 and 6 years old.

Here's an eyewitness.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: And all we heard was, "Gun! Gun!" And I looked to the sidelines and saw two gentlemen fighting. And I turned and got all the kids off the field.

And I said, "Boys, let's go this way." I got them all down. I said, "Get down on the ground."

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COLLINS: To be clear, no shots were fired. By the father was charged with assault and endangerment. Dumping patients on the streets. Los Angeles police go undercover and expose a heart-wrenching routine. Hospitals discharge them, ambulances abandon them on skid row. We are investigating that.

And he disappeared without a trace. Now a man with a rare form of amnesia is found, reunited with his family and fiancee.

His mother is live in the "NEWSROOM" with Kyra Phillips and Don Lemon. That's coming up at 1:00 p.m. Eastern. You can join us live for that.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CLANCY: Welcome back to YOUR WORLD TODAY. I'm Jim Clancy.

GORANI: I'm Hala Gorani. Here are some of the top stories we are following for you.

Security forces in Gaza are searching for an Associated Press photographer kidnapped by Palestinian gunmen. Emilio Morenatti was grabbed Tuesday morning as he left his apartment in Gaza City. A.P. says it's working with Palestinian officials to secure the man's release. The Hamas-led government is calling for the release of Morenatti.

CLANCY: U.S. troops searching door to door right now in Baghdad for a soldier who disappeared on Monday. He is feared kidnapped. The U.S. military says the soldier is an Iraqi-American working as a translator. U.S. troops searched the headquarters of Al-Furat TV, owned by Iraq's largest Shia political party. They confiscated some weapons there but later returned them.

GORANI: Top U.S. political and military leaders say success is possible in Iraq. They say the government has agreed to a realistic timeline of steps to end the fighting and bitter sectarian divisions. U.S. Commander General George Casey says Iraqi forces should be ready to take over security in their country in 12 to 18 months.

CLANCY: Just a few minutes ago, Mowaffak al-Rubaie, Iraq's national security adviser, talked with our own Michael Holmes who wanted to really know how the militias would be controlled.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MICHAEL HOLMES, CNN ANCHOR: You have the militia question which the government seems unwilling to address, as the two main militias are linked with parties that are part of the government. When is the militia issue not just going to be addressed, but when are the militias going to be disbanded?

MOWAFFAK AL-RUBAIE, IRAQ NATL. SECURITY ADVISER: Let me tell you something that the national unity government headed by Prime Minister Maliki has ordered the Iraqi security forces, be it the army of the police, to take on anyone -- militia, death squads, anyone who is armed in the streets or those who -- or anyone who challenges the Baghdad security plan.

(CROSSTALK)

HOLMES: But sir, that is policing. That is policing the militias. It's not disbanding them.

AL-RUBAIE: No. We have a full, detailed plan for disbanding and disarming and reintegrating and rehabilitating the militia, and we have already started this plan. We have already started three or four weeks ago reforming the security ministry, the Ministry of Interior and Ministry of Defense and the Iraqi National Intelligence Agency as well as the Ministry of National Security.

HOLMES: I understand.

AL-RUBAIE: We have already started this reform process.

HOLMES: I understand. We have limited time. I don't mean to be interrupting you, sir. I don't mean to be rude, but we do have limited time. Tell me this, if there is such an operation underway to deal with the militias, why has Operation Together Forward, or operations of any kind, occurred in Sadr City where the Madhi army is based?

AL-RUBAIE: Well, Baghdad security plan and Together Forward is for all of Baghdad.

HOLMES: But not Sadr City?

AL-RUBAIE: And Sadr City is not an exemption from Baghdad security plan. We have a full, detailed planned for -- it contains political engagement. It's media campaign. It's an economical package, as well as security measures for Sadr City as well as the rest of Baghdad.

HOLMES: But Sadr City is not included in that. When is it going to be?

AL-RUBAIE: Sadr City is included in Baghdad security plan. And we have all ready built the barrier around Baghdad, the physical barrier of water and -- around Baghdad. And Sadr City is included in that. There is also a detailed plan of a political engagement, of information campaign, of economical stimulation of the local economy of Sadr City, as well as security measures.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CLANCY: Now there's a widespread belief, of course, that the militias themselves are involved in many of the sectarian killings, and that they have infiltrated the security, police and military forces. Despite the gloomy picture coming out of Iraq, the White House says it isn't changing its position on the war. They did remove the stay the course rhetoric.

Joining us to talk a little bit about the White House political strategy for next month's election and the current fix it finds itself in, David Gergen, former adviser to four U.S. presidents, both parties. Now a professor at Harvard University.

Thank you for joining us.

DAVID GERGEN, HARVARD UNIVERSITY: Thank you.

CLANCY: I think the first question -- maybe you can shed some light on it. What's happening inside the Bush White House right now?

GERGEN: Well, they're scrambling. They have a real mess on their hands, they know it, in Iraq. They don't like to admit it as publicly as we would all like. But they understand it.a And they understand that they're in a losing, deteriorating situation here at home politically.

So both things have -- you know, both their political standing and their percent in Iraq have unraveled very quickly this fall, leaving them in a very vulnerable situation. They are talking optimistically about holding the House and the Senate. Karl Rove and the president both saying they think they'll do it.

And, by the way, they've always beat the expectations game. They, to borrow George W. Bush's phrase, they should not be misunderestimated. But even so, I think most observers, when they look at it realistically, believe their chances of holding the House are very slim and their chances of winning Iraq are almost slim to none.

CLANCY: When you look at the situation, go back four, five years, and you think of the people that urged the president, that the president embraced, the people like Doug Feith at the Pentagon, Donald Rumsfeld, Paul Wolfowitz, all of these other people that said there would be dancing in the streets in Iraq. That certainly hasn't come true. The president, though, taking all the blame for embracing those very people.

GERGEN: Well, the president's taking all the blame because he's been basically keeping the people. He's been continuing to embrace the people. I think what we're -- there's a widespread expectation in Washington that has been there since essentially -- since the start of the fall that we are going to be in a holding action in Iraq, not changing course, adjusting tactics here and there until the elections were over.

And then there would be a full scale re-examination of our fundamental strategy. Not just our tactics, but our strategy in Iraq, that would be -- and there would be recommendations coming in from the Baker Commission, chaired by Jim Baker, Republican, former secretary of state, and Lee Hamilton, Democrat, former leader of the Congress. That they would be coming in with recommendations. And the president at that time would not only probably embrace a new strategy, but would probably bring in a fresh team to carry it out.

Now we'll have to wait and see how this comes out. I'll have to tell you, I think this is -- the situation in Baghdad and around Iraq has unraveled much more quickly than they expected in the run-up to the election. And that's why they're scrambling, rhetorically. You know, just trying to hold on now, get past the election, and then figure out what you do. And then they've got to make some extraordinarily, excruciatingly hard choices about strategy.

CLANCY: As they, you know, move towards doing that, one has to question -- you look at it, they could see the problems in Iraq, certainly for some time. But it seems the only thing that has brought all this into focus, and maybe this is a statement in support of democracy, has been the upcoming election. That's what's really making them rethink this policy, isn't it?

GERGEN: I'm not sure I agree with that totally. I think the election has put the heat on them and has brought a focus to it. But I -- one cannot underestimate enough how important this recent spate of violence has been. When you've got the American troops, as many as 11 killed in a single day, the deadliest month we've had in a couple years, with Americans being killed over regularly in the run-up to the election.

It's -- it was appropriate for Tom Friedman, the "New York Times" columnist, to write a column, saying this resembles the Tet Offensive, an attempt to break the psychological back of the war and drive America out of Vietnam, as the Vietcong did. Now those who favor violence in Iraq are doing much the same thing. So even the president himself the other day said, you know, Tom Friedman has a point about this looking like a Tet Offensive.

I think that, more than the oncoming elections, has caused the problems for the administration. People are waking up every day and seeing these scenes of violence, seeing the numbers, and saying my God, Iraq's -- you know, Baghdad's coming unraveled. We just put a lot more troops in there.

So I don't think the administration wanted to have this kind of conversation in the run-up to the elections. I think they very much wanted to have Iraq steady as we go, stay on course. They wanted that rhetoric, not the rhetoric of changing tactics, we got to re-evaluate and all the rest of it. I think this has come as a rude surprise and very, very unhelpful on the campaign trail.

CLANCY: David Gergen, I want to thank you very much for joining us, telling it like it is. The situation, the political and the military situation facing Washington today.

GERGEN: Thank you, Jim. Good to talk with you.

CLANCY: Good to talk with you -- Hala.

GORANI: Now, in other news, the head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency is urging the U.S. to engage North Korea in talks because he says sanctions won't work. Mohamed ElBaradei made his call for quote, "constructive engagement" after meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. ElBaradei says sanctions aren't enough to keep North Korea from building nuclear weapons.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP_ MOHAMED ELBARADEI, IAEA DIRECTOR GENERAL: I think sanctions -- we need to understand that we need to use sanctions in a measured way to induce change of behavior. And that means that in addition to sanction, we need to also look for constructive engagement. And that's what I actually have been saying in the case of North Korea. Sure, we have now sanctions for inexcusable, in my view. But at the same time, we need simultaneously to think of ways and means to engage them. Isolating them further, you know, might hurt them for a while, but it's not a solution.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GORANI: Well in the subject of Iran, ElBaradei says the jury is still out. He claims he is still not convinced that Iran is trying to actually build a nuclear weapon -- Jim.

CLANCY: The European Union urging China, open up its markets to foreign investment or face a trade backlash. On the domestic front, Beijing already taking action to eliminate a problem that has dominated its economic and political life for decades.

Jaime FlorCruz brings us that story.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JAIME FLORCRUZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Chinese president Hu Jintao is making the fight against corruption his number one mission.

HU JINTAO, CHINESE PRESIDENT (through translator): To crack down on corruption is our major priority and a pressing task that bears on the overall development of the country.

FLORCRUZ: He also sees corruption as a plague that endangers the Communist Party's very survival,and that's why he is aiming at high- profile targets. This provincial vice governor executed for taking more than $600,000 U.S. in bribes. And this former cabinet minister sentenced to life in prison, also for bribery.

China's official numbers on corruption cases are astonishing, more than 67,000 officials convicted since 2003. More than 40,000 cases investigated every year. And so far this year, more than 17,000 officials already convicted for cases ranging from petty theft to multimillion-dollar scams.

Official corruption tops the list of complaints for many Chinese who are skeptical of the government's efforts to fight it.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): China's corruption problem is more serious than in other countries. That's why there's a big campaign to fight it.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE (through translator): It's hard to tell how effective anti-corruption measures will be. It all depends on how the measures are implemented. FLORCRUZ: But analysts say the anti-graft campaign is about more than just weeding out the bad apples. Some say it's a power grab by the Chinese president Hu Jintao, who's getting rid of people loyal to his predecessor, Jiang Zemin.

RUSS MOSES, POLITICAL ANALYST: Hu Jintao is doing this in part because he feels very, very nervous about the possibility of Jiang Zemin and his allies trying to exert more influence on central policy.

FLORCRUZ: A case in point, Shanghai's top Communist Party official and a prominent businessman, both detained for alleged embezzlement of $380 million in pension funds. Both men are loyal to his Jiang, and more names are surfacing every day.

(on camera): Communist party leaders argue corruption is only caused by a few, but experts say the corruption is systemic, made worse by the lack of transparency and accountability. And that's why corruption remains the greatest challenge to China's new generation of leaders.

Jaime FlorCruz, CNN, Beijing.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

GORANI: Well, maybe waiting is better after all.

CLANCY: Just ahead, we're going to look at a new study that says older mothers don't have more health problems than their younger peers.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

GORANI: Welcome back to CNN International.

CLANCY: What are we seen? A couple hundred countries?

GORANI: A couple hundred. This is your WORLD TODAY. Welcome.

CLANCY: All right. Let's turn to some health news that's coming in, might be of interest to people no matter where you are. A new study of some disturbing news for male cell phone users. The study, presented to the American Society for Reproductive Medicine, says that heavy use of mobile phones may damage fertility in men. The study, based on 361 men attending a clinic in Ohio, found that those who used their mobile phones more than four hours a day had a lower sperm count. No word on what caused that difference. The study's authors caution more research is going to be needed on this one.

GORANI: But, there is encouraging news now for older women who have just had or are planning to have children. A new study shows younger doesn't necessarily mean better when it comes to being a mother.

Ann Steiner conducted the research while she was at the University of Southern California. She joins us now from New Orleans, where she presented her paper on Monday. We're not talking about the ability to conceive here, but the ability to be a mother, essentially, when a women is in her 50s. So no increased health risk and no increased stress levels in those mothers?

ANN STEINER, UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA: Yes. So what we found in this study is that when you compare women who conceived in their 50s to women who conceived in their 40s or in their 30s after using assisted reproductive technologies, they did not have higher levels of parenting stress compared to their younger counterparts, which is certainly reassuring.

GORANI: It is reassuring, but -- and these are -- you conducted this study on 150 women who conceived using donated eggs. But let's talk a little bit about when the kids get older and the mother gets older. Because if the mother gives birth at 50 or 52, when the kid's 15, she's already almost 70 years old. What about then?

STEINER: Well, first of all, I should stress that this study did only look at children that had been conceived between 1992 and 2004. So the oldest child was only 12 in this study. However, it should be reassuring to know that the life expectancy of a 50-year-old woman is 82 years. And that can be -- it's certainly reassuring to older mothers who are choosing to conceive at that point.

GORANI: Let me ask you, then, about the child. Because your study essentially focused on the woman only. But some might say a woman who is 55 and who has a baby is really sentencing her child to become an orphan essentially in their 20s.

STEINER: Well, as I had mentioned earlier, previously, the life expectancy is different for a woman who reaches the age of 50 than the average life expectancy. It is 82 years. This study did look at younger children. But certainly the data from the parenting data from women who conceived after age 50 is certainly reassuring. At least at ages under 12 years.

GORANI: Now, last question here. You mentioned no increased health risks or stress levels, but what is about being a new mother in your 50s that perhaps is a negative in all this? What did those mothers complain of that perhaps had they had their children in their 30s, would not have been an issue?

STEINER: Well certainly we didn't ask specifically about specific complaints. This was two standardized questionnaires that went out to mothers, one on parenting stress and the other on physical and mental functioning.

So, we can't surmise as to what differences there are. The women that did choose to conceive after age 50 are a select group of women. They are generally very healthy. They have been pre-screened prior to going through in vitro fertilization. So they may be a different subgroup of those women out there that are 50.

GORANI: All right, many things go into this study. Anyway, interesting work there. Thank you, Anne Steiner of University of North Carolina. We'll be right back after a short break on YOUR WORLD TODAY.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CLANCY: Welcome back. They often said beauty is in the eye of the beholder?

GORANI: Well perhaps it's really in the eye of the camera and the computer and a whole host of other gadgets. Some new ads for Dove are pretty revealing.

CLANCY: Brooke Anderson gives us a look at what these show about fashion models and show about the rest of us.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BROOKE ANDERSON, CNN ENTERTAINMENT CORRESPONDENT (voice over): They say beauty is only skin deep, but today the adage could be beauty is only a click away.

This new ad from Dove exposes the secrets behind the so-called perfect images splashed all over magazines and television today. With a little help, Stephanie is given a whole new look in a matter of seconds. She's photographed and then the clicking begins.

KATHY O'BRIEN, MARKETING DIRECTOR, DOVE: They start to enhance her features, you know, plumping up her lips and enlarging her eyes, and even lengthening her neck. And that's the part that I find to be startling.

ANDERSON: Startling and problematic. According to Dove's marketing director, Kathy O'Brien, she says it's digital techniques like these that, like the ad says, are distorting society's perception of beauty.

O'BRIEN: I understand why photographs and fashion magazines want to really portray the most beautiful images that they can, but what we're finding through the work that Dove has done is that these images are really unachievable for women.

ANDERSON: Roshumba Williams is a professional model and has even written a book about it.

ROSHUMBA WILLIAMS, MODEL AND AUTHOR: I've seen them slim thighs and take off weight, even add boobs and things like that. "Cosmo" covers, they do it all the time. They add cleavage.

ANDERSON: Williams says the altered pictures are harmless, that consumers aren't naive, they know photos are enhanced, but still buy the magazines for the fantasy.

WILLIAMS: They want to escape, they want to have the dream, they want to get away. It's easy, it's harmless. I don't think it's a bad thing. I think it's a good thing.

ANDERSON (on camera): Dove's mission to change the preconceived notion of beauty is a familiar quest for the star of the highest rated new television show this fall, "Ugly Betty".

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE, "UGLY BETTY": Downsize these hips about 15 percent.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE, "UGLY BETTY": At least.

ANDERSON (voice over): With an average of 14 million viewers a week, "Ugly Betty," a less than glamorous fashion magazine assistant, went head to head with the practice of retouching photos. And in the end, like Dove, chose to broaden the definition of real beauty.

AMERICA FERRERA, ACTRESS: I started seeing that we are all just an hour away from ugly. That's my new catch phrase.

ANDERSON: Whether it's skin deep or with a click of the mouse, beauty will always be in the eye of the beholder.

Brooke Anderson, CNN, Hollywood.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

GORANI: All right, it's the opposite here at CNN. We're a lot better looking in real life. That's it for this hour. I'm Hala Gorani.

CLANCY: Some of you. I'm Jim Clancy and this is CNN.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com