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Your World Today

Voting Under Way in New Hampshire Primary; Crisis in Kenya: Opposition Leader Rejects Offer for Direct Talks; Bhutto Assassination

Aired January 08, 2008 - 12:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

JIM CLANCY, CNN INTERNATIONAL ANCHOR: The first votes cast and counted. A small state could have a huge impact on the U.S. presidential race. Who will stumble, who will get the all-important momentum?
COLLEEN MCEDWARDS, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: And nobody dares make a prediction on that. This race is so close.

I'm Colleen McEdwards in New Hampshire. A live report coming up.

ROSEMARY CHURCH, CNN INTERNATIONAL ANCHOR: And ears to the radio. Barack Obama's Kenyan family pray for a favorite son and an end to the conflict in their country that's left hundreds dead.

CLANCY: Pledge from Pakistan. President Pervez Musharraf telling British detectives probing the assassination of Benazir Bhutto they will have his full support.

CHURCH: And he says it's a private matter, but the French beg to differ. Is French President Nicolas Sarkozy making his private life too public?

It's noon in Manchester, New Hampshire, 8:00 p.m. in Nairobi, Kenya.

Hello and welcome to our report seen all around the globe.

I'm Rosemary Church.

CLANCY: I'm Jim Clancy.

From North America to Africa, wherever you are watching, this is YOUR WORLD TODAY.

CHURCH: Well, the polls are open and the candidates are fighting for their political lives.

CLANCY: That's right. You know, voters in New Hampshire could deliver a pivotal bounce or a fatal blow to some of these U.S. presidential campaigns today.

CHURCH: Opinion polls tell us who is favored, but the state has a huge number of Independent voters, many of whom were still undecided in the final days. CLANCY: And you can bet that the candidates well aware of just that. They are dashing across the state, literally, trying to pick up last-minute support and get the voters out to the polls, just as important.

CHURCH: That's right.

Our Colleen McEdwards is following the nation's first primary and second presidential contest and joins us now from Manchester.

And Colleen, yes, the Independents they are key here. It's a huge number, isn't it?

MCEDWARDS: It is, it's a large number. Some say 40 percent, maybe even more. So much at stake here today.

Democrat Hillary Clinton needs a win to slow Barack Obama's surge after Iowa, while Republicans John McCain and Mitt Romney duking it out to try to get their first win of this race. Of course, there are other candidates as well fighting just as hard, and we are covering it all right here on CNN.

We've got Mary Snow and Joe Johns with us now.

Mary, you've been out at polling station just a little while ago. What was it like there?

MARY SNOW, CNN CORRESPONDENT: You know, Colleen, a lot of enthusiasm on both sides of the aisle. There could be record turnout today.

You take a look at the weather, it's a mild day here in New Hampshire, which bodes well for turnout. And polls open here at 6:00 a.m. Not only, of course, were voters out there, but so were candidates, as you mentioned, trying to sway undecided voters.

At one polling place in Manchester, Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani, two Republican rivals, actually bumped into each other as Mike Huckabee was bringing coffee, trying to sway some of those last- minute voters. Those two candidates really haven't focused all that much of their strategy on New Hampshire.

Mitt Romney has. He has a lot at stake here. Today he was out shaking hands. He says he's more confident than ever, but he has so much at stake after that setback in Iowa.

And senator John McCain has really been leading in the polls. He's confident that he's going to win here tonight. And as you mentioned, he's really going to be focusing -- or he's going to need support of Independents. That helped him win here in 2000.

MCEDWARDS: That's right.

Mary, what's driving the enthusiasm of the voters? I mean, is it the issues on the Republican side, or, you know, is it just the excitement, the tightness of the race? SNOW: It's the excitement. And I hate to be cliched, because "change" has been used so much in all of these campaigns, but people really feel that they want to see their choice in the White House.

And I have to tell you, on the Republican side, we talked to a lot of voters, a lot of them were undecided until the very last minute. But they really take this very seriously, they feel that there is a lot at stake here, and this is a very crucial time in history.

MCEDWARDS: Yes, for sure. Mary Snow, thanks very much.

Let's bring in Joe Johns.

You've been out there talking to Democrats. Are you getting a sense of a big turnout, or can you tell yet?

JOE JOHNS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I think everybody says there's going to be a big turnout. And it certainly seems like you're going to see it. The weather is fantastic here for once in New Hampshire.

MCEDWARDS: Exactly.

JOHNS: There's also the issues themselves. If you look at Iowa, use that as a template, there were record numbers that came out for the Iowa caucuses.

So it only goes to show that people are very plugged in to this race. They've been paying very close attention to it. The secretary of state here in New Hampshire said he has never seen anything like this, and he's been around a long time. So, yes, I think a lot of people are predicting there's going to be a record turnout, and it is reasonable that there will be.

MCEDWARDS: Crucial for Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama here. Set that up for us.

JOHNS: Well, absolutely. Coming out of Iowa, now you see Obama as a person looking very much like a front-runner, even though Hillary Clinton was sort of the presumed front-runner all along. So now we're in a position where Barack Obama looks like he has about a nine-point lead in the polls.

Hillary Clinton, trying to do something here to show that she's still relevant. The thing though is the turnout, because that's sort of the great equalizer.

The issue at this point is getting the people who support you to the polls here in New Hampshire. And so that involves, you know, getting buses, advance, people to take your people to the polls, or telephone calls to try to make sure that your vote shows up. Anything can happen, a lot of people say, just because of the large numbers of people who could come out here, as many as 500,000, which would be pretty unprecedented in a little state like this.

MCEDWARDS: Yes. Real quick, John, I mean, are you getting a sense that people want change? I mean, I heard one voter say, you know, sort of almost for her, like kick the bums out, start fresh. I mean, that was a direct quote. It's interesting.

JOHNS: Right. Yes, well there are a lot of concerns about what's going on in Washington, certainly on the Democratic side with the Iraq war. There are a variety of other issues, again and again and again we hear about the power of lobbyists.

Some of those things that John Edwards talked about so much. And Barack Obama really has sort of embraced his message and in a way taken it over.

So, yes, a lot of people are talking about change, and there is that issue of course of experience with change with Hillary Clinton. Once again here, just like in Iowa, I've talked to people who have said they're not so sure that they ought to buy the Hillary Clinton experience argument. And that is part of the reason why, if she doesn't finish in first place here in New Hampshire, there could be a retooling. I talked to one Democratic insider here who said, look for us to reach out to people like John Podesta or James Carville if things don't...

MCEDWARDS: People who could manage her campaign in a different way.

JOHNS: That's right, exactly.

MCEDWARDS: Interesting stuff.

JOHNS: So, you could see some changes in the campaign if she doesn't do real well here tonight.

MCEDWARDS: Joe Johns, Mary Snow, thank you both. Appreciate your coverage.

All right.

And you know, some people wonder why the New Hampshire primary is so important. Well, of course it's the first primary in the nation. That's a big part of it. And it can really can be, as we've just been talking about here, be a make-or-break contest for these candidates.

Here's an interesting fact about it.

Since 1952, 12 of the last 14 presidential candidates who won the New Hampshire primary did actually go on to the White House. Only Bill Clinton in 1992 and George W. Bush in 2000 were elected president without winning the primary in this state.

Well, of course, for complete coverage of the results of the New Hampshire primary, a few hours away, plus analysis and more, be sure to join the best political team on television -- Wolf Blitzer, Anderson Cooper, Lou Dobbs, Soledad O'Brien, they're all going to be anchoring our coverage. It will start at 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time.

And for international viewers, that will be Wednesday at 01:00 GMT. All of it right here on CNN.

Jim, back to you.

CLANCY: All right, Colleen. Thank you much for that.

You know, we got a profile there. We're going to be back with Colleen a little bit later, talk some more about this race in New Hampshire. It's really shaping up to be an exciting one.

But we want to talk to -- about a different election that's taken place and resulted in violence. In Kenya, 500 lives have been lost in post-vote violence. President Mwai Kibaki's offered face-to-face talks with his rival, but the opposition is rejecting that now. There is word that a U.S. presidential candidate though is getting involved.

Here's Zain Verjee following developments in the Kenyan capital of Nairobi.

Zain, who sent the message and what was it?

ZAIN VERJEE, CNN STATE DEPT. CORRESPONDENT: Well, Jim, I just got off the phone with Raila Odinga, the opposition leader spokesman, Salim Lerna (ph). And what he told me was this -- he said that Senator Obama called for a few minutes and spoke to Mr. Odinga.

He said in that conversation, Senator Obama expressed some real serious concerns about the outcome of the elections here in Kenya. He said that Mr. Odinga really appreciated the call, he said that he was really happy and surprised to receive the phone call given how busy Obama has been campaigning for New Hampshire. He also said that Obama promised to stay in touch.

The Obama campaign itself issued a statement saying that Senator Obama, also in that conversation, said that Raila Odinga should meet with President Kibaki, his rival, because that very image would send a real powerful message to the country that has been so divided after this election. And lastly, Jim, Obama also told Raila Odinga that he was going to call President Mwai Kibaki as well and tell him the same thing -- Jim.

CLANCY: Why does Barack Obama's message matter in Kenya? Does it?

VERJEE: Well, any pressure right now from the international community, especially the United States, and someone as significant to Kenyans as Barack Obama, does really matter, Jim. What Kenyans want to see is their leaders get together and resolve this matter of crisis, because what it it's doing is polarizing the country. So, frankly, this helps.

It also matters, Jim, because Barack Obama is seen by many Kenyans here as a symbol of leadership, and what he's saying, his message of moderation, really does resonate among ordinary Kenyans. It's unclear whether it would really have any significance, a visceral impact on the situation. But substantively and symbolically, the message is important, and Kenyans appreciate that -- Jim. CLANCY: All right.

Zain Verjee reporting to us there live from Nairobi.

As always, Zain, thank you very much.

CHURCH: Well, he says it is serious.

CLANCY: That's right. Is France's president, Nicolas Sarkozy, really ready to tie the knot again? The recently-divorced 52-year-old was mobbed by the media while he was vacationing with his new flame, former supermodel-turned-singer Carla Bruni. They've made several trips in recent weeks to Egypt, Jordan and Euro Disneyland.

CHURCH: Wow. Well, today in Paris, Mr. Sarkozy told reporters not to speculate on a date. He'll let everyone know in good time.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

NICOLAS SARKOZY, FRENCH PRESIDENT (through translator): As you've seen, it's a serious matter, but the date won't be fixed today. It is serious. You will learn it once -- you will find out once it happens.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHURCH: There you go, you heard it here. And it would be the third marriage for Mr. Sarkozy, the second for Bruni.

Well, forensic experts from Scotland Yard get the all-clear from Pakistan's president.

CLANCY: Coming up on YOUR WORLD TODAY, as British detectives move forward with their investigation of Benazir Bhutto's assassination, the son of the former prime minister says it's not enough.

CHURCH: Also ahead, "For Sale" signs stay firmly planted in yards across America. Another dismal figure emerges from the U.S. mortgage crisis.

Stay with us for that and more coming up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CHURCH: And welcome back to CNN International here on YOUR WORLD TODAY.

CLANCY: A special welcome, too, to our viewers joining us in the United States this hour.

CHURCH: That's right.

Now, we want to go to Pakistan first, where Scotland Yard detectives probing the assassination of Benazir Bhutto met with President Pervez Musharraf today. A British Embassy official says Mr. Musharraf is vowing the government will not interfere with the ongoing investigation. There was a lot of criticism that that might happen. The meeting comes as Bhutto's son discounted the British help, claiming only a United Nations investigation would satisfy him.

Well, Senior International Correspondent Nic Robertson joins us now from London, where Bilawal Bhutto Zardari faced the media.

And Nic, are we going to see a lot of this, where the son of Benazir Bhutto talks to the media in London?

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN SR. INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: I don't think we are, Rosemary. Since he became chairman of Benazir Bhutto's party, Pakistan Peoples Party, he has been inundated with requests for interviews, to talk to journalists, for one-on-one conversations.

What the party is trying to do right now is protect him. They say the most important thing is for him to carry on with his studies at Oxford University and to head off the continuation of all these inquiries, an intrusion into his private life. They decided to hold a press conference today in London.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ROBERTSON (voice over): Flanked by party officials, Benazir Bhutto's son, Bilawal, gained little away before his first full press conference since taking over as leader of his mother's party. The 19- year-old Oxford University student looked nervous facing so many cameras.

Aides say he had plenty of coaching. It showed as he faced tough questions about how he, at 19, with little political experience, could lead one of Pakistan's most powerful parties. He said he has the party's support.

BILAWAL BHUTTO ZARDARI, CHAIRMAN, PAKISTAN PEOPLES PARTY: Well, it wasn't handed down like some piece of family furniture. They asked me to do it and I did. Everybody -- they represented the whole federation, all four provinces, and (INAUDIBLE), and they asked me to do this.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Wouldn't it have been wise to just wait until you know a little more?

ZARDARI: It was a moment of crisis. Pakistan was burning. We needed to show a united front immediately to quell the violence.

ROBERTSON: So many journalists came to hear what he had to say. Most had to stand. But the young Bhutto Zardari's advisers cautioned this was not to launch his political career, but to protect him until he is ready. Right now his father is leading the party.

SIMON WALKER, BHUTTO FAMILY FRIEND: It's extremely important that he is able to continue his studies as normally as possible and not be besieged by requests for interviews, photographs and public comment. ROBERTSON: Bhutto Zardari said he intends to follow his mother into politics. Slowly at first. His priority now, to follow her academically.

ZARDARI: She's completed four years at Harvard and four at Oxford, and there is no doubt that one of the many characteristics which people admired was her broad education.

ROBERTSON: The press conference lasted about 15 minutes. Bhutto Zardari answering more than a dozen questions, criticizing President Musharraf and U.S. support for the Pakistani leader. He also called for a U.N. investigation into his mother's death. Like his mother, he said he wanted a good relationship with the media.

ZARDARI: I should like to continue a good relationship, but in moderation. Not only for my own sake, but also for the sake of my fellow students and the college. I am perfectly prepared to schedule press conferences such as this, but when I am at Oxford, I hope that I can be left alone.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ROBERTSON: What Bhutto Zardari says he wants to do is to spend the next three years studying. And he says in that time, he hopes to mature, he hopes to learn more. He said that politics is in his blood, but he needs this time so that he is ready to get into a very, very sort of extreme world of politics in Pakistan. And that's why the party is placing so much emphasis on a press conference today, then leave him alone for the next few years -- Rosemary.

CHURCH: Indeed. Certainly a lot of pressure on a 19-year-old.

Nic Robertson reporting there from London -- Jim.

CLANCY: Kind of an interesting news note this day. The creator of the world's most famous spy is being honored by Britain's Royal Mail.

The post office there issuing stamps showing book covers from six of Ian Fleming's James Bond novels. Actress Samantha Bond showed off the stamps in London. She played Miss Moneypenny in several of those popular 007 films. The release marks Fleming's 100th birthday.

He created James Bond -- get this -- did you know this -- 55 years ago.

CHURCH: And it keeps on going, too.

CLANCY: That's right.

CHURCH: All right. When we come back, yet more bad news for the U.S. housing market.

CLANCY: New numbers giving homeowners that, well, sinking feeling. But what effect does this data have on the markets? We're going to check that just ahead. Plus...

CHURCH: Their country in chaos after a bitter election, but one Kenyan family especially keeps a close eye on the U.S. election. We'll meet the Obamas of Kenya.

Do stay with us.

(NEWSBREAK)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CHURCH: And a warm welcome back to our viewers joining us from all around the globe, including the United States. This is YOUR WORLD TODAY. I'm Rosemary Church.

CLANCY: I'm Jim Clancy. And these are some of the stories that are making headlines around the globe.

Turnout brisk up in New Hampshire. Voters there casting ballots in the second U.S. presidential contest. Democrat Hillary Clinton really needs a win here to slow Barack Obama's surge, while Republican John McCain and Mitt Romney also looking for their first wins in this race.

CHURCH: Benazir Bhutto's son is urging the United Nations to open an investigation into his mother's death. Bilawal Bhutto Zardari made the call at his first news conference since taking the reins of Bhutto's Pakistan's people party. Scotland Yard is assisting Pakistan with the investigation.

CLANCY: French President Nicolas Sarkozy says he has a "serious relationship" with former super model Carla Bruni. He says no wedding date has been set like the magazines reported over the weekend. They said the couple was planning to marry early next month.

Well, Democratic candidate Barack Obama being greeted by crowds of supporters out there on the campaign trail. But that's not the only place that he can find a warm welcome.

CHURCH: Yes, we're saying that Obama is a star in Kenya where back in 2006 thousands flocked to see him. Kenya is the county where Obama's father was born and raised.

CLANCY: Our own Paula Newton takes us now back to the Obama homestead out in rural Kenya.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

PAULA NEWTON, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): To get to the Obama family farm, we traveled across the equator, through some of Kenya's most remote villages, left at the gravel road that turns for the Senator Obama school, up the dusty hill, and over potholes like you've never seen -- not even in New Hampshire. And right on to the Obama homestead.

Hello. Hello. I'm Paula Newton with CNN.

This is Mama Sarah, Barack Obama's granny, as he calls her. This is where his father was born and grew up and where 83-year-old Mama Sarah still lives.

We interrupted your work today.

SARAH ONYANGO OBAMA, BARACK OBAMA'S GRANDMOTHER: Yes.

NEWTON: As her grandson is busy bringing in the votes, she's bringing in the crop, preparing feed for the livestock. It doesn't keep her from campaigning.

What would you tell the American people about Barack, you know, to convince them to vote for him?

In her native language she says, "He's a good listener. And if he's given a chance, he will work hard for America.

What do you think of Hillary Clinton?

"This is a contest," she says diplomatically, "but the best man or woman win."

When was this picture taken?

SAID OBAMA, BARACK OBAMA'S UNCLE: This was taken in 1987.

Said Obama is Barack's uncle. He shows us a photo of his nephew's first visit to Mov (ph) Kenyan ancestral home, just after his father died. Barack Hussein Obama is buried here. Mama Sarah says he'd be heartbroken to see Kenya now. The Obamas say they don't recognize the Kenya of the past few days. The bloodshed, despair and desperate need triggered by the disputed elections. The Obama school hasn't even been able to open this year because of the clashes.

S. OBAMA: They (ph) expected of Kenya to be the beacon of hope in this region. But again, politicians are politicians.

NEWTON: Though he insists Barack Obama is different, humble, like no other, he says. And that's because of his Kenyan ancestry right down to this farm.

Paula Newton, CNN, Nyangoma Kogelo, Kenya.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CHURCH: All right. Well let's head back to Manchester, New Hampshire, to find out how that primary vote's progressing. Our Colleen McEdwards is standing by there.

How's it looking, Colleen?

MCEDWARDS: Well, it's a gorgeous day and turnout is expected to be high. I don't think the weather can hurt. The sun is out. It's actually warm despite the snow on the ground here. But one candidate, you know, we don't seem to be talking to much about is former mayor of New York City, Rudy Giuliani. He had been consistently leading in national polls. But in the Iowa caucuses, he came in sixth place.

Now there are more than 2,000 delegates going to the Republican National Convention. And if you look at the numbers, the winning candidate needs some 1,100 delegates to win that nomination.

It is early in the process. We've got to say that. But Giuliani has a total of one delegate so far. Former Massachusetts governor, Mitt Romney, by comparison, has 26. Giuliani was seen greeting voters as they waited in lines at a polling station right here in New Hampshire.

His strategy has been essentially to lie low in Iowa and New Hampshire, come on strong in Florida, and that is going to be later this month.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RUDY GIULIANI, (R) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I think it's going to be a very interesting race and I think we're in good shape and we've got leads in about 16 or 18 of the states that are coming up. And I believe I'm the candidate that can be a 50-state candidate for the Republican Party. I think I can reach out in states that some of the other Republicans can't and give my party the best chance of winning in November. And I think, you know, a lot of Republicans, as we go along, will see that.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MCEDWARDS: Joining me now, a key Giuliani supporter, Frank Guinta, mayor of Manchester, New Hampshire.

Mayor, thanks a lot for being here. You ordered this weather, didn't you?

FRANK GUINTA, MAYOR OF MANCHESTER, NEW HAMPSHIRE: My pleasure. Of course I did, just for you.

MCEDWARDS: Rudy Giuliani is facing some heat, even from Republicans, saying he has made a big gamble here and that it may have been the wrong choice by essentially skipping this state. What's your response?

GUINTA: Well, first of all, he has not skipped our state. He has been here almost as many times, more than 50 times, than John McCain and Mitt Romney.

MCEDWARDS: More than 50 times in what period of time?

GUINTA: In a little less than a year.

MCEDWARDS: About a year.

GUINTA: So he has spent considerable time here.

MCEDWARDS: But not so much lately. Not so much in the key days of the campaign. I was talking to some Republicans yesterday who said he had only a few campaign stops here and at one of them wouldn't take questions from people and some Republicans were irked by that.

GUINTA: Well, he's been here for the last eight straight days actually. And he's doing at every retail stop taking questions both from the press, as well as regular members from the audience. There was a fantastic opportunity for people and the media to access Rudy Giuliani. I think he's actually doing very well here.

And he's looking at a 50-state strategy because of the compressed primary process. He's doing something that the other candidates are not. He's campaigning in New Hampshire, but he's also campaigning in the other states. So I think some of the other campaigns may be concerned about that because he still is leading in about 16 to 18 early primary states and that's strong for him.

MCEDWARDS: But he won't have won early on. And is it presumptuous to think that as a candidate you can not win, not win, not win and then one day expect to win?

GUINTA: Well, because of the compressed primary process, we have never seen this kind of early process in our state's -- in our country's history. So it will be a little time before anyone actually can determine what the actual outcome is going to be over the next 30 days. He still has strong leads in 16 of the early primary states.

After this evening, after our victory party tonight, he's going to go down to Florida and South Carolina, spend -- continue to spend more time there, focus on his vision for the country. Ultimately I think he will get the nomination on the Republican side and I think he will ultimately be the next president of the United States.

MCEDWARDS: Why isn't he polling better in New Hampshire then? I mean, you think this would be a natural for him. People concerned about, you know, national security here. He's close at hand. Why isn't he doing better?

GUINTA: It's interesting because Rudy Giuliani cut taxes 23 times. New Hampshire is a very low-tax state. I think what you're seeing in New Hampshire is a lot of fluidity. There have been leads, a race. There have been changes and jockeying.

So as he spent the last eight days here, you're starting to see, at the parties that he's going to, house parties, we just had three -- almost 300 people at an event the last couple of days, you're starting to see that kind of momentum up to the primary day. So I think he's going to surprise some people and finish strong and then continue on with the strategy that they've got in place.

MCEDWARDS: All right, Mayor Frank Guinta, of Manchester, New Hampshire. Thanks a lot for your time today. Really appreciate it.

GUINTA: My pleasure. MCEDWARDS: All right. Thank you so much.

And, of course, there's more from New Hampshire all day here on CNN from the best election team on television. Online you will also find the latest political news and views. You'll find the facts on all of the candidates in this campaign. Go to cnnpolitics.com for more.

Jim and Rosemary, back to you.

ROSEMARY: OK. Thanks for that, Colleen.

CLANCY: All right. We've got to take a short break here. But ahead on YOUR WORLD TODAY, the French president, well, he's under the media microscope again, Rosemary.

CHURCH: (INAUDIBLE). And the question reverberated throughout France, for better or worse, has Nicolas Sarkozy popped the question? Well, we'll talk live with a French journalist to see if wedding bells are imminent for Mr. Sarkozy and girlfriend Carla Bruni.

CLANCY: All right. There's some other news though. Up next, George W. Bush preparing to return to the Middle East, but this time as the president. It's actually his first-ever visit as president. Is he heading into the lion's den? We're going to get some analysis of that. Stay with CNN.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CLANCY: Hello, everyone. Welcome back. You're watching YOUR WORLD TODAY right here on CNN International.

CHURCH: That's right, where we are seen live in more than 200 countries and territories right across the globe.

Well, U.S. President George W. Bush heads to the Middle East Wednesday. He'll be trying to advance the Middle East peace process. First stop will be Israel, where protests have already broken out. Some Israelis gathered to form a human chain around Jerusalem's old city and some Muslim extremists encouraged attacks against the president while he's in the region.

CLANCY: Now this visit is coming as Mr. Bush is entering the final year of his two-term presidency. A lot of people asking, is this trip a little too little much too late? Or can the president actually move in there and forge a lasting legacy in the Middle East? Ben Wedeman examines those questions.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BEN WEDEMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT, (voice-over): This was nine years ago. Meeting with Israel's ceremonial president, Bush ducked the presidential question.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I haven't made up my mind if I'm running for president or not. WEDEMAN: Bush, on a rare trip outside the U.S., was then Texas governor. Former Israeli government adviser, Ra'anan Gissin, got a taste of the effect the journey had on Bush.

RA'ANAN GISSIN, FORMER SHARON ADVISER: One of the things that really affected him greatly when he woke the first night in the King David Hotel, he opened the curtains, he saw the sun rising over Jerusalem, over the old city, and the glow on the mosques and on the churches and everything and he said, at that moment, you know, I understood what a revelation is. He said this was like a revelation to me.

WEDEMAN: During the visit, then-Israeli Foreign Minister Ariel Sharon took Bush on a helicopter ride over the occupied West Bank. For someone with little knowledge of the region beyond the Bible, it was an eye-opener.

GISSIN: I asked him, Mr. Governor, what did you think of that tour? He said, gee, I never realized how small Israel is. You know, I have a creek in my ranch in Crawford which is larger than the Jordan River.

BUSH: A good friend, the prime minister of Israel.

WEDEMAN: Bush and Sharon, in a coma for the last two years, were later to meet 12 times as leaders. And while Israel and President Bush didn't always see eye-to-eye, it is a close relationship and many Israelis see Bush as the most pro-Israeli U.S. president ever.

For the Palestinians, the Bush years have been hard. He refused to meet the late Palestinian leader, Yasser Arafat. Palestinians saw Bush giving Israel a free hand to crush the intefadeh and isolate Arafat in his Ramallah headquarters.

SAEB ERAKAT, CHIEF PALESTINIAN NEGOTIATOR: But at the same time he was meeting Sharon almost every month. Prime Minister Sharon. Which is, to us, was, you know -- people (INAUDIBLE) why themselves about, you know, being honest brokers, even-handed. Even-handed means even-handed, not one-handed, you know. Sharon, Sharon, Sharon.

WEDEMAN: But George W. Bush was the first U.S. president to have what he called a vision for a Palestinian state. Though that vision for much of his administration has been little more than a mirage. Long ago blurred, many argue, by grim reality.

ERAKAT: On the ground, the settlements are being determined by more settlements. Jerusalem (INAUDIBLE), instead of being negotiated, is being determined (ph) by settlement and the borders are being determined by a war. So what's left to negotiate?

WEDEMAN: In November, Bush hosted a Middle East peace summit in Annapolis, heralded as the start of American re-engagement in the Palestinian/Israeli conflict.

But in the last year of a waning presidency, it's hard to shake the impression among both Palestinians and Israelis that it's a visit too late to make a difference.

Ben Wedeman, CNN, Jerusalem.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CHURCH: All right. A short break now. When the president of France announces plans to marry, that's news.

CLANCY: That certainly is. And even if he doesn't announce wedding plans, well, that's news, too.

CHURCH: Coming up, some in-depth analysis from France on what Nicolas Sarkozy didn't say at his latest press conference. Stay with us.

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CLANCY: Well, is French President Nicolas Sarkozy afraid of commitment? That's the question.

CHURCH: There's a question for you. Well maybe he just thinks his love life is nobody else's business. Over the weekend, a French magazine reported that he planned to marry girlfriend Carla Bruni next month.

CLANCY: But for whatever reason, Sarkozy refused to announce a wedding date at his news conference. How very French.

CHURCH: Very. Well, French journalist Anne-Elisabeth Moutet was at that news conference at the Elitza (ph) Palace and she joins us now live from Paris.

You know, we're not used to seeing this sort of openness from a French president, talking about his private life, even calling a news conference on that. How are the French dealing with that sort of honesty?

ANNE-ELISABETH MOUTET, FRENCH JOURNALIST: They are surprised. And Sarkozy himself, during the conference, reminded the people who had criticized him that at least he was not lying like his predecessors, which in itself was an interestingly new way of talking about it in public. He did not actually refuse to name a date. He said it's serious and you may very well hear about the "it," meaning the marriage, when it's already done. So it's not that he's afraid of commitment, is that he just doesn't want to have a riot at his wedding, I think.

CHURCH: But in the middle of all of this, the French people don't actually seem to care. That's sort of baffling for a lot of people overseas. They like getting involved in their politicians' love lives.

MOUTET: Usually we don't. It's not a French thing. We consider that people's private life is private and whatever they do with their private life is not a problem in the way they handle the state. We don't see even mistakes in somebody's private life or faults as something that would indicative of the way they would behave in public. It's not the French way.

CHURCH: The French don't seem the like the fact that he appears to be distracted here. Is there any evidence of that, that he's sort of directed toward his love life and forgetting some of the political things that he has to solve?

MOUTET: Not really. He's a man who's very hard-working. He has made thought of his program on the idea that people should work more and earn more as they work more. He himself gets up early in the morning, gets in time to jog. And what he said basically is, and he said this at the press conference, he said everybody is entitled to a private life, but there's no reason why the president should not be entitled to a private life, and that also meant everybody else has a job and/or would like to have a job and are entitled to a private life.

He certainly has had-- there will be prodical problems if he goes, for instance, to London. He cannot be received with Carla Bruni at Buckingham Palace. And it would be the first sign in the history of the French Republic that a French president is received at Buckingham Palace without a consort or legal spouse. So marrying Carla Bruni would certainly help.

But other than that, in terms of doing the job, it is not seen as a problem.

CHURCH: All right, Anne-Elisabeth Moutet, thank you so much for talking with us there from Paris. Appreciate it.

CLANCY: All right. We're going to go back up to New Hampshire and check in, see how it's going up there. Casting ballots all the day long. A very important race.

CHURCH: That's right. Our Colleen McEdwards is there monitoring what's been happening. What an exciting day.

And it's a do-or-die day, isn't it?

MCEDWARDS: It is. You know, Jim just mentioned casting ballots. Well, how about casting fishing lines? Ice fishing, of course. What do you do on a chilly day in New Hampshire? Well, maybe you want to mix in a bit of ice fishing with your politics.

Take a look at these guys here. This is at a lake just north of New Hampshire, Lake Winnipesaukee in the lake district that's in the northern part of the state. And, you know, they say they're independent-minded voters. They come out here whenever they feel the urge. They're independent-minded voters who are going to vote their own way in an independent kind of state, they say.

And also these -- this video from Concord, another part of this state, where people have come from all over out there supporting their candidates with their signs, their kids, young and old. People from Florida, Arkansas, Vermont, New York, Carolina, everybody wanting to get involved in this. Let's just listen to what people said.

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UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The great thing about ice fishing is that you just don't know what it is until it gets to the top. We just wonder where the money goes.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: If we work all day, all night, like we have been, Hillary has the most organized field staff, we're going to do the best we can and we're going to prevail.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We just 80 honks, Obama got 15.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Well, it's energetic. It's a little messy at times. But it's full of what the people of America, I think, expect. Just that competition for ideas and that exchange of information. We're all interested in the future. We all love our country.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MCEDWARDS: And those are some diehard Hillary Clinton supporters right there in Concord. And, you know, the independents are going to be such a big force in this state and a lot of the people you talked to are either making up their mind at the last minute or they say they might just vote for an underdog, not so concerned about who the front- runner is. So results are still several hours away, but keep it right here on CNN. It's going to be interesting.

Jim, Rosemary, back to you.

CLANCY: What's the record? You know, Ohio didn't have a really good record of predicting who might win the presidency. How about New Hampshire?

MCEDWARDS: New Hampshire's got a pretty good record. In fact, 12 of the last 14 who have gone to the White House have won here. Only two have not. So, you know, there's a lot of ways to look at it. You could read the tea leaves, you could read the polls, you could look at history. It's different this time around though. You know, a lot of pundits point out, you know, it's a compressed race this time. The order is different. So, you know, it may surprise people this time, but we'll see.

CLANCY: All right. We will see. Colleen, great to have you up there.

CHURCH: A very exciting today too.

CLANCY: All right. This reminder, CNN is going to have complete coverage of the New Hampshire primary as the results trickle in.

CHURCH: Wolf Blitzer, Anderson Cooper, Lou Dobbs and Soledad O'Brien will spearhead our coverage starting at 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time. That's Wednesday at 0100 GMT for international viewers, all right here on CNN.

Well, that's it for this hour. I'm Rosemary Church. CLANCY: I'm Jim Clancy. Wherever you are in the world, stay with CNN.

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