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Your World Today

Bush and Olmert meet in the Mideast, Pentagon releases video of incident, U.S. warns Iran against further aggression, Gruesome Find, Four Bodies in DC House, Serial Killer in Florida?

Aired January 09, 2008 - 12:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: And one, of course, you're asking about is whether or not the leadership has got the willingness and the desire and the drive to design a state compatible to both sides. And my answer is, yes, I think they will.
EHUD OLMERT, PRIME MINISTER OF ISRAEL: I hope that I don't disappoint anyone, certainly not the president because we talked at length. I would say that the president asked for me to make any commitments other than the ones that Israel made already with regard to the peace process. And as I've spelled it out, on many different occasions including in Annapolis, which was as I said a very important event, the commitment of Israel is absolutely to carry on these process in order to realize the vision of two states living side-by- side. As I say before.

Now there are many issues. Settlement is one of the issues. We made clear our position. And I know that sometimes not everyone is happy with this position. But we are very sincere and we were never trying to conceal any of these facts from anyone starting with President Bush and Secretary Rice and of course, our Palestinian partners.

They know that there is a moratorium on new settlements in the territories. But they also know and we have made it clear that Jerusalem as for as we are concerned is not in the same status. They know the population status are not in the same status. There might be things that will happen in the population centers or in Jerusalem which they may not be in love with, but we will discuss them and we will not hide them. We are not going to build any new settlements or territories. We made it clear and will stand by our commitments and we will fulfill all our commitments as part of the road map because this is an essential part for any progress that will have to take place in the future.

But there are some aspects on the just real life which one can't ignore. And everyone knows that certain things in Jerusalem are not in the same tactical level as they are in other parts of the territories which are outside the city of Jerusalem, and so it is true about some population centers.

So there was nothing that happened that was not known in advance to all our partners in these forces. We make clear our position, we make clear exactly what we can do, what we can't do, what we want to do and what we will not be able to do. And I think that they all know it, and at least even when sometimes they disagree with us, they at least respect our sincerity and openness about these issues.

QUESTION: You've been -- Mr. President, regarding the issues of settlement that you mentioned before, what should -- what could Israel do regarding the ever-growing threat from Gaza and regarding the settlements, did you get any new assurances from the prime minister regarding the approval of illegal outposts? Do you believe that this time it will be implemented? Do you care about it?

BUSH: Yes.

QUESTION (through translator): Mr. Prime Minister, are you concerned that the core issues are going to be affected because of a member of the Knesset is going to withdraw from the coalition?

BUSH: As to the rockets, my first question is going to be to President Abbas what do you intend to do about them? Because ultimately, in order for there to be a -- the existence of a state, there has to be a firm commitment by a Palestinian government to deal with extremists and terrorists who might be willing to use Palestinian territory as a launching pad into Israel. So I'll be asking that question tomorrow. What can we do to help you?

I believe that he knows it is not in his interest to have people launching rockets from a part of the territory into Israel. Matter of fact, maybe the prime minister can comment on this in a second, but at least he told me that he fully recognizes in order for there to be a state, he cannot be a safe haven for terrorists that want to destroy Israel.

You can't -- you can't expect the Israelis, and I certainly don't, to accept a state on their border which would become a launching pad for terrorist activities. And that's why the vision of a democracy is an important vision. How Israel deals with the rocket attacks I would hope is done in a way that not only protects herself but worries about innocent life. I'm convinced the prime minister does. He understands he has an obligation to protect Israel. He also understands that he's got to be circumspect, reasonable about how he does it so that innocent people don't suffer. He just gave you the answer on the settlements.

In terms of outposts, yeah, they ought to go. Look, we've been talking about it for four years. The agreement was get rid of outposts, illegal outposts, and they ought to go.

OLMERT (through translator): I said earlier, and I say once again, I think it's important to repeat this, Israel has commitments and the Palestinians have commitments. We must abide by our commitments, and we shall do so. I do not want to use this as an excuse. Therefore, I say we demand of the Palestinians that they uphold all of the commitments made and some have not been upheld, the most important things that have to do with terrorism, they have to deal with the security of the state of Israel.

Not only in Gaza, but the fact that we, over the past year, have had fewer casualties from terrorism than in any year of the recent years typically is not because the Palestinians have made fewer attempts, but because we have been more successful in a very sophisticated and courageous way of our security service and our ideas in preventing the terrorist acts.

I'm not using this as a pretext, I'm saying we must uphold our commitment. I believe that the president has said this sincerely and appropriately. We have made commitments, we should uphold them and we shall, but let us present a balanced picture.

By the same token, we will not refrain from demanding and insisting that the Palestinians abide by all of their commitments, and their commitments when it comes to terrorism are the central key, the pivot, to bringing this negotiation process to a successful conclusion. And I hope it will happen this year, as all of us do.

I very much sincerely hope that all of those in the coalition will remain in the coalition, and I will certainly not like to have a political crisis. I don't think that anyone who is responsible -- has a responsibility such as I have would like to see any kind of an undermining of the stability of this government.

It is a stable government. The government has been operating in many different directions with very impressive achievements which the party of the Knesset is part of this effort, part of these achievements, whether it is in the economic field or the political realm or when it comes to security or the deterrence of the state of Israel. Everyone knows this government has had some very impressive achievements on its record over the past year and that party is certainly a partner this process and I'd like them to stay part of the process.

I think that the gap between us is smaller. I will do everything within my power to ensure that the coalition remains stable. The state of Israel must be part of a serious peace process. We cannot forego this, we cannot obscure it. We must not delay it. It would be wrong to delay it. Let me say something in Hebrew since I know that the president does not speak Hebrew, because after all, we're not supposed to praise people in their presence so I'll say it in Hebrew.

What I'd like to say is thank god I can conduct political negotiations with George Bush at my side as one of my partners. Thank god we can conduct political negotiations with the largest and most important power in the world and the most important for us is headed by such a good friend of Israel. We have no interest in delaying that. We don't want to procrastinate negotiations, lest changes for the worst take place.

We certainly don't want to delay the negotiation process when we have such political assistance, assistance with respect to our security, too, when it comes to the most important power in the world, being led by a person who is so deeply committed to the security of the state of Israel and to realizing this is a person who is fair, who does not hide his viewpoint, who speaks openly about his will to establish a Palestinian state alongside Israel, a state that will be secure, not at the expense of the state of Israel.

I believe that any responsible political leader in the state of Israel will understand that this is a moment that must not be missed. This is an opportunity that must not be passed up. We must do everything we can. OK, we can have occasional internal arguments. The president has said that some very difficult decisions must be made. He is right. But I am not afraid of difficult decisions.

I am willing to contend with difficult decisions. I am willing to make decisions that will entail painful compromises so long as they enable us to reach the goal that we have dreamt of for so long, to secure ourselves, to ensure our sense of security and to give the Palestinians a state of their own that will be vibrant, democratic, open and living in peace alongside Israel.

At the head of our negotiating team is the deputy prime minister, the foreign minister. There is a very heavy responsibility. We work in full cooperation and I am convinced that she will likely succeed, together with the head of the Palestinian team in navigating through these negotiations in such a manner that the vital interests of the state of Israel are served well on the basis of a deep understanding.

BUSH: The interpreter got it right.

QUESTION: Mr. President, what is the United States prepared -- what action is the United States prepared to take if there is another confrontation with Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz? Your national security advisor this morning spoke about consequences if there was a repeat.

And Mr. Prime Minister, why is there no three-way meeting scheduled on this trip?

BUSH: The national security advisor was making it abundantly clear that all options are on the table to protect our assets. She's referring to Mr. Prime Minister, the fact that our ships were moving along very peacefully off the Iranian border, in territorial water, international waters, and Iranian boats came out and were very provocative. It was a dangerous gesture on their part. We have made it clear publicly, and they know our position, and that is, there will be serious consequences if they attack our ships, pure and simple. And my advice to them is don't do it.

OLMERT: We had a three-way meeting in the United States just a month ago. We are starting now a serious process directly with the Palestinians. The president met with the Israeli delegation and with me today. He will meet tomorrow with a -- with President Mahmoud Abbas and I am sure that all the necessary information will be provided, all the curiosity of the president will be satisfied.

As you know, this is a very good meeting. We are not against trilateral meetings. We just found out at this time in life, considering what we have achieved already and what we are about to start now in a serious manner that it was not essential in order to fulfill the desire that we all share, which is to move forward on this process between us and the Palestinians. I can re-assure you, and perhaps through you, many of your people in America, that the -- we think and I'm sure that the Palestinians think that the visit of the president is very, very helpful to the process that we are engaged in, and that it contributes and it will contribute a lot to the stability and the very comfortable environment within which we will conduct our negotiations.

And therefore, I again want to take this opportunity, Mr. President, now you don't need it in Hebrew, to thank you very much, really to thank you for your friendship and your support, and the courage that you inspire in all of us to carry on with our obligations. It's not easy. You know, sometimes it's not easy.

But when I look at you, and I know what you have to take upon your shoulders, and how you do it, the manner in which you do it, the courage that you have, the determination that you have, and your loyalty to the principles that you believe in, it makes all of us feel that, you know, we can also, in trying to match you, which we can't, we can move forward. Thank you very much.

BUSH: Appreciate it.

JIM CLANCY, CNN INTERNATIONAL ANCHOR: There's the handshake. The smile and certainly a lot of praise for President Bush coming from the Israeli prime minister. "I'm very hopeful," said a determined U.S. president as he arrived there in Israel, his first-ever trip as president there. He declared it was a historic moment that could lead to a Palestinian state, alongside him Israel's Prime Minister, Ehud Olmert, the rocket fire that plowed into southern Israel from Gaza this day, Olmert pledging support for the process, but clearly putting security first.

Iran also the subject of the -- that came up during those talks between the two leaders, a constructive dialogue in the words of president Bush about their talks, a dialogue that he said could lead to peace in our time. Reporters pressed Mr. Bush on Iran saying there were doubts the U.S. would do what has to be done. Bush replied, my attitude is that a nontransparent country can easily restart a nuclear program, as in the case of Iran. He went on saying it has to be assumed Iran can turn enriched uranium into a bomb.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BUSH: Iran is a threat to world peace. There was a recent intelligence report that came out that I think sent a signal to some that said, perhaps the United States is not viewing an Iran with a nuclear weapon as a serious problem.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CLANCY: All right. Well, President Bush added, "I believe the pressure," including economic, diplomat pressure, "can be effective." He said he intends to seek a democratic solution. We'll have more on Iran. Barbara Starr will be joining us live from the Pentagon. Hala Gorani is there in Jerusalem at this moment and she joins us now. What are we to make of what the president, what the prime minister had to say this day? Didn't seem like there was much that was unexpected.

HALA GORANI, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Not much that was unexpected, and critics will tell you that we're at the stage of discussing a vision for a two-state solution. We're not talking about the tangible aspects of a two-state solution. This is almost 15 years after Oslo, seven years after Camp David and it is still a vision we're in the process of discussing.

Also, what struck me was the prime minister of Israel, Ehud Olmert, said, look, we are clear, we are not going to build new settlements and we will not appropriate new land in the West Bank. The U.S. President George Bush says, yes, those illegal outposts, those are his words, should go. The question remains though, what about the settlements already in the West Bank that some say make a logical, viable contiguous Palestinian state at this stage of the game impossible. So those are very major core issues. We're not discussing the issues today, Jim. We're discussing the vision for perhaps what will happen much, much later down the line.

CLANCY: There's no shortage of people, both in Israel and in the Palestinian territories, that are opposed to any kind of a peace deal that they've been talking about, recognizing building up a new Palestinian state, Hamas numbered among them this day in Gaza saw a lot of action, not only on the streets, but with missiles flying.

GORANI: Absolutely. You have, as the prime minister of Israel mentioned, rockets still landing inside of southern Israel. This is a huge issue for Israelis. They bring it up all the time. They consider that they are under a security threat in that part of the country.

Now the prime minister said, Gaza has to be part of any package. In other words, for a deal to stick, the violence has to stop from Gaza as well. But here's what critics are saying regarding that issue -- Hamas is in control of Gaza. So as you nailed down a peace agreement without Hamas, then it is logical not to expect Hamas to abide by any agreement that's reached between the Palestinian authority and the Israel prime minister.

CLANCY: Hala Gorani reporting to us live there from Jerusalem. Listening in as Ehud Olmert, the Israeli prime minister, and the U.S. president, George W. Bush, outline their goals in this visit.

Well now let's turn to the issue of Iran that we saw come up there; some critical considerations there. The president saying don't do it, in terms of repeating that incident that was seen near the Strait of Hormuz. Barbara Starr joins us now live from the Pentagon.

What's the latest from there?

BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Well, Jim, pretty terse, but specific, comments from President Bush really sending a message to Tehran from his visit in the Middle East. When he was asked about all of this, he warned all options are on the table if Iran was to do this again. That is, to provoke U.S. navy war ships transiting international waters in the Strait of Hormuz. He was not very happy, he made that very clear. Have a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BUSH: There will be serious consequences if they attack our ships, pure and simple. And my advice to them is don't do it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

STARR: Very terse words from the president. What we know, Jim, also is here at the Pentagon, senior military officials say they are concerned that this could happen again. The assessment, informal as it may be, that the Iranians were trying to provoke the U.S. Navy. Trying to see how far they could go at basically poking at them, sending those fast-attack boats, five of them against three Navy warships before the Navy would respond.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates, we are now told, has been privately warning top commanders for weeks, if not months, not to get caught in this trap. Warning them to make sure that U.S. ships are very sure they're staying in international waters there, that they don't stray into Iranian waters, that U.S. aircraft don't stray into Iranian airspace. Secretary Gates very privately wanting to make sure that there is no miscalculation, no misunderstanding. The last thing the U.S. military wants to do right now is have some sort of provocation that's going to force them into shooting at the Iranians. It came very close to that of course.

CLANCY: I want to get in here. Iran is saying it simply didn't happen, it was a fabrication. Reaction there from the Pentagon? I have about 15 seconds.

STARR: The word that we heard today was, absurd. Yesterday, the Iranians said it was a standard interaction with the U.S. navy. Today, they say that video is fabricated. The U.S. navy, the U.S. military says this incident happened, there's no question about it.

CLANCY: All right. Barbara Starr reporting there live from the Pentagon. Barbara, thanks for keeping us updated on that.

We'll continue to cover all these international issues as they develop in the Middle East.

We're going to turn to New Hampshire in a moment. Stay with CNN.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DON LEMON, CNN ANCHOR: I'm Don Lemon live at the CNN World Headquarters in Atlanta. We'll have more of YOUR WORLD TODAY in just a few moments. But first, we want to check on stories making headlines right here in the United States.

Right now a mystery is unfolding in the nation's capital. Four bodies were discovered in the house in southeast Washington. Police say the victims were all young between five and 17 years old. It isn't clear how they died. The police say it appears they had been there a while. A woman at the house is being questioned in that case. A woman is found dead in Daytona Beach. Some wonder if a serial killer is on the loose. Police say Stacy Gauge was likely killed mid- December. Her body was found last week behind a church. No word on how she died. Police say evidence is very similar to three past murders. Three women were killed in late 2005 and early 2006. All three were shot dead in the head with the same caliber weapon. More on this developing story coming up at the top of the hour right here in the CNN "NEWSROOM." That begins at 1:00 p.m. Eastern.

Also, a story about check fraud but not your run of the mill variety. This one involved rolling a corpse down the streets of Manhattan in a wheelchair, an office chair, I should say. We'll explain when "NEWSROOM" returns. That's at 1:00 p.m. Eastern. Very interesting story to tell you about there.

A horrific chain reaction crash in Florida. Authorities say at least three people died in a fiery 50-vehicle pileup on Interstate 4 in Polk County. The highway was blanketed by an eerie shroud of smoke from a nearby brush fire. The fog and smoke have lifted but just a short time ago, the sheriff said crews were still working to free an injured crash victim. Interstate 4 between Tampa and Orlando is shut down. We'll continue to update you on this developing story throughout the day. Officials recommend drivers avoid that stretch of Interstate 4 the rest of the day there.

I wonder what the winds are like in that area, if it is fueling that or helped fuel that. Let's talk to our Chad Myers about that and the rest of the weather.

Hi Chad.

CHAD MYERS, AMS METEOROLOGIST: You bet it did. Winds were absolutely zero, Don. When winds go to zero like that, that means there is no way for smoke or fog to get out of the way. The fog settles right to the ground and stay there had. Now winds are about five miles per hour and that's blowing that fog away. But it was those smoke particles and moisture in the air, clear skies and calm winds. That weather was absolutely 100 percent a factor in that accident down there, or series of accidents.

Severe weather today has moved off to the east, finally gusting off to the east way off into parts of Manhattan now, getting gusts around 40 miles per hour at times. Also up into Boston and into Montreal. We are expecting some snow across parts of the U.P. of Michigan, up into Ontario. Some ski resorts up here will take that. More snow in the Rockies as well. We'll detail the next storm system. Believe it or not Don, a chance of severe weather again tomorrow just like we had yesterday. This is just a series, one after the other, like planes lined up getting into La Guardia.

LEMON: Yeah, yesterday was quite a mess. Tomorrow, same thing could be on tap. All right, Chad Myers, we'll check back with you at the top of the hour.

YOUR WORLD TODAY continues after a quick break. I'm Don Lemon. See you at the top of the hour right here in the CNN "NEWSROOM." (COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CLANCY: Welcome back to our viewers joining us from all around the globe, including the United States this hour.

This is YOUR WORLD TODAY, I'm Jim Clancy and these are your headlines.

U.S. President George W. Bush says tough choices and painful compromise will bring Israel and the Palestinians closer to a peace deal. In his first-ever visit to Israel as the U.S. president, Mr. Bush received a commitment from Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to tackle core issues to help implement the peace road map.

President Bush says there will be serious consequences if Iran attacks U.S. ships in the Strait of Hormuz. He called last Sunday's incident where Iranian naval craft engaged a U.S. warship a very dangerous gesture.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BUSH: We have made it clear publicly and they know our position. And that is, there will be serious consequences if they attack our ships, pure and simple. And my advice to them is don't do it.

(END OF VIDEO CLIP)

CLANCY: Well the pollsters and the pundits got it wrong in New Hampshire. The process to elect the next U.S. president has been turned on its head with surprise victories in last night's New Hampshire primary. Voters in the granite state, as it is called, proved what they've been saying all along -- they're independent thinkers who are not influenced by the Iowa caucus last week. Colleen McEdwards is following all of the action up there.

Colleen, it had to be quite a night and I'm sure spreading into the morning.

COLLEEN MCEDWARDS, CNN ANCHOR: Yes, it was a very exciting primary that did go late into the night before people got final results. Opinion polls before this election showed Democratic Senator Barack Obama with a double-digit lead over Hillary Clinton. But all of that changed when Clinton won by a slim majority.

On the Republican side, John McCain came out on top as well as to revive his almost-dead in the water campaign as it was described. Let's take a quick look at where the numbers stood at the end of it all. Hillary Clinton defying the odds making that impressive comeback in the last part of the campaign. In the final tally she beat out Barack Obama overall by look at this, two percentage points. Not much closer than that can you get. John Edwards coming a distant third, while Hillary Clinton's changing campaign strategy paid off, Barack Obama getting ready for a comeback of his own.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) SEN. HILLARY CLINTON, (D) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: It was a great moment for me and I think it really demonstrated what the people of New Hampshire have time and time again, they take a hard look at everybody, they ask a lot of tough questions and they render their judgment. They're famously independent and they sure showed it last night.

SEN. BARACK OBAMA, (D) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We feel great about what we've been saying between Iowa and New Hampshire, record turnouts, people extraordinarily engaged in the process. And what's pretty clear is that the American people are taking this process seriously, they are paying a lot of attention, they want to participate.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MCEDWARDS: And on the Republican side, campaign veteran John McCain dealt Mitt Romney his second loss. McCain's message, which he calls straight talk, resonated loud and clear with the independents in New Hampshire. He won 37 percent of the overall vote. Romney taking 31 percent in a state where some believe he should have won. Iowa caucus winner Mike Huckabee coming in third. We've got some live pictures now of Mike Huckabee. He is already in South Carolina, southern U.S. state with a lot of evangelical Christians ready to vote there, an area where he hopes to do well.

Well if the watch word going into the New Hampshire primary was change, coming out the word is comeback.

Candy Crowley takes a look now at the difference a day made in U.S. presidential politics.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Hold the phone, it's all different now. Twin victories in New Hampshire have set the '08 presidential race on its head. One win for a campaign left for dead.

JOHN MCCAIN, (R) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Tonight we sure showed them what a comeback looks like.

CROWLEY: And another win for a campaign on the brink.

CLINTON: Together, let's give America the kind of comeback that New Hampshire has just given me.

CROWLEY: Women voters who prefer Barack Obama in Iowa flocked to her in New Hampshire, drawn, the Clinton complain believes, by a newly accessible, more open candidate.

CLINTON: Over the last week I listened to you, and in the process, I found my own voice.

CROWLEY: Hours before the polls closed, Clinton's staff talked about antsy donors and upcoming changes. They seemed startled by her victory, no more so than camp Obama which sailed out of its win in Iowa into a double-digit lead in New Hampshire. All of which disappeared when the votes came in. Still, they are formidable foes who will meet again next in Nevada and South Carolina and beyond.

OBAMA: We know the battle ahead will be long. But always remember that no matter what obstacles stand in our way, nothing can stand in the way of the power of millions of voices calling for change.

CROWLEY: On the Republican side, John McCain proved himself the old warrior he is, losing most of his money and his staff last summer, McCain chose to stand and fight in New Hampshire with a tough guy truth-teller campaign they loved in 2000 and loved again in 2008.

MCCAIN: I listened to you, I answered you, sometimes I argued with you. But I always told you the truth, as best I can see the truth, and you did me the great honor of listening.

CROWLEY: McCain's victory makes the well-healed front-runner Mitt Romney a two-time loser. Romney looks now to his home state of Michigan to bail him out.

MITT ROMNEY, (R) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Well, another silver, I'd rather have a gold but I have another silver.

CROWLEY: The Republican race is now officially in chaos with Iowa's winner Mike Huckabee placing a respectable New Hampshire third, and Rudy Giuliani waiting in the wings for a contest in friendly territory. And though John Edwards and Bill Richardson journey on, the democratic race looks like an epic battle between two mega watt superstars. Buckle up, it's going to be a bumpy ride.

Candy Crowley, CNN, Manchester, New Hampshire.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

MCEDWARDS: Bumpy ride indeed. But fresh from his mirror loss here in New Hampshire, Democrat Barack Obama got a major endorsement today. He won the support of a powerful service employees union in the state of Nevada. The Nevada caucus coming up next week with 33 democratic delegates at stake. Three more than were at stake here in New Hampshire, by the way. A statement says the union's decision is based on what it calls Obama's commitment to solving the issues facing the American people.

And a quick look right now at the third place finisher on the Democratic side. John Edwards right here live in South Carolina, his home state. A state he wasted no time getting there, addressing supporters there. He is hoping to have a better finish when that contest gets going. A really interesting one there on the Democratic side as well.

Joining us now for more analysis on this, we are joined by Dante Scala, he is the author of "Stormy Weather, The New Hampshire Primary and Presidential Politics." Certainly all the candidates wasting no time getting on to the next step. But let's pick apart a little bit what happened here. How did Hillary Clinton do it?

DANTE SCALA, AUTHOR, "STORMY WEATHER": Hillary Clinton did it with her base of working class voters, men and women, and more so women though, working class women. She did very well. And college- educated women came back to her and she -- that was really the swing vote in this race between those -- between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, college-educated women. They went to Clinton at the end and that made all the difference.

MCEDWARDS: Yeah, that's interesting. Let's just pop up some numbers on that because it's interesting to look at them. Women make up 57 percent of the voters for the democrats. Of that block, 47 percent going to Clinton, 34 going to Barack Obama. As you point out, very interesting. Her campaign now talking about reaching out to younger women, not just the older women that have been more traditionally her support.

SCALA: What we thought was happening in Iowa was that the youth vote was all for Obama. We saw something very different in New Hampshire and really a breakdown according to gender, where we saw men trending Obama, Clinton, women trending toward Clinton.

MCEDWARDS: Now let's talk about the Republican side. John McCain of course, doing really well with the independents, 39 percent of independent voters went to McCain versus 27 percent to Mitt Romney. You know, where does Mitt Romney stand now? This is a state he should have done well in.

SCALA: Yeah, Mitt Romney is in the unenviable position of outspending both his chief opponents in Iowa and New Hampshire by millions of dollars and still losing big leads in the last weeks of the campaign. He goes to Michigan, it's hard to see how he does better there.

MCEDWARDS: Dante, do you think this is going to sort of take the wind out of the experience versus change kind of debate we've been hearing? Do you think we'll be hearing more of that in the races ahead?

SCALA: I think we'll hear more about it, but I think all of us pundits are going to be more careful about how we talk about it. Because it was clear that New Hampshire women had a different idea of what changed them than say Iowa women.

MCEDWARDS: Yeah, you can't assume anything, can you?

SCALA: No.

MCEDWARDS: Dante Scala, really appreciate your thoughts, appreciate it.

SCALA: You're welcome.

MCEDWARDS: All right Jim, it is back to you.

CLANCY: All right, Colleen, thanks much. Great perspective, as always, up there in New Hampshire. Colleen will be out on the campaign trail more this year.

Many voters there where she is cited the U.S. economy as one of their top concerns as they were streaming out of the polls on Tuesday. Coming up, we're going to ask the question -- is the U.S. economy heading towards recession? Is it already in recession? We're going to talk with the executive editor of "Forbes" magazine. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CLANCY: Hello everyone and welcome back. You're with CNN International and YOUR WORLD TODAY. Seen live in more than 200 countries and territories, all around the world.

The war crimes trial of former Liberian President Charles Taylor under way once again. Prosecutors called the first of nearly 60 insider witnesses to give their testimony. A former bodyguard says Taylor had a secret radio room in his mansion to keep contact with a brutal rebel leader in Sierra Leone. Taylor is charged with five counts of crimes against humanity, including murder and sexual slavery. He is the first former African head of state to be tried by an international court.

African union Chief John Kukor(ph) is meeting with Kenya's president and the opposition leader trying to work out their political impasse. As many as 500 people have been killed in a week of riots that followed disputed elections. Paula Newton reports, old tribal rivalries have revived and people are living now in constant fear.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

PAULA NEWTON, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Kenya's risk valley is sadly living up to its name. For decades here in western Kenya, farmers from different tribes lived here side by side. Now in some areas that's history. The burned-out farms all over this country speak to a brutal tribal rivalry based on old grudge matches over land and wealth, rekindled now by the disputed election and has created some of history's first Kenyan refugees.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Also the people here are (INAUDIBLE) most of them.

NEWTON: The (INAUDIBLE) are President Kibaki's tribe, they run the country as independents in the mid '60s. Now they're under siege by rival tribes who claim they control too much of Kenya's meager wealth and land.

DINAH ADONGO, UGANDA RED CROSS: Some had houses burned up, businesses burned up and their lives threatened so they (INAUDIBLE)

NEWTON: When Peter Karanga's home was burned, he fled to Uganda with his wife and two children. As a (INAUDIBLE), he says he may never be able to go back. PETER KARANGA, KENYAN REFUGEE: Anything can happen. You can go back after three, two weeks. Then they come back and they slice you open and you are dead and your family. So it is better to stay where you are, you can live for the days that God has planned for you far better.

They don't have enough mattresses and blankets?

KARANGA: They have about two blankets.

NEWTON: So here he waits with 1,400 others, sleeping on a concrete floor.

(On camera): The Ugandan Red Cross says it is getting by feeding the refugees that are here now, but their worst fear is that thousands more are waiting on the Kenyan side of the border worried that they might have to escape here for safety and security.

(voice-over): Just on the other side of the border, Kenyans who have lost everything now squat at the police station too afraid to leave. Cars and trucks their only shelter. Mothers are anxious with barely any food for themselves, and that means not enough milk for nursing babies like David. There is nothing random about the suffering here. Tribes loyal to the government and those who back the opposition are at each other's throats. They're escalating old rivalries into a new tribal divide and creating new outposts of misery. Paula Newton, CNN, on the Ugandan Kenyan border.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CLANCY: We're going to take a short break here on YOUR WORLD TODAY. When we come back, more on the U.S. election race and on the U.S. economy, both have an impact on the world. Stay with us.

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CLANCY: Hello everyone and welcome back to YOUR WORLD TODAY. You know everybody up in New Hampshire today of course talking about a comeback. Well, both in New Hampshire and down on Wall Street, people kind of hope for a comeback but they're looking at a Dow that's down more than 600 points now since the beginning of the year. A lot of people are asking the same question -- how worried should we be about the U.S. economy? Some big brokerage houses are weighing in, giving their opinions.

But let's bring in Tim Ferguson now, an executive editor at "Forbes" magazine. He joins us from New York.

Are we in a recession or not?

TIM FERGUSON, EXECUTIVE EDITOR, "FORBES": Jim, whether we're in one or going into one, or just in a funk, the important thing is how do we get out of it as quickly as possible. I would argue, you do that by establishing what the real prices are for assets. Houses, stocks, what have you. We need to get to that real price and once we do, I think this economy is going to kick back into gear. CLANCY: Tim, we've seen the subprime woes, we've seen oil prices going up, fears of inflation. What's out there in the U.S. economy perhaps we don't see?

FERGUSON: Well, I suppose the next shoe to drop might be credit card debt. Whether people are going to make the payments on those credit card loans and how that might affect the banks. That's really where the rubber's hitting the road these days, is at the banks. They're now stuck with a lot of these assets that they thought were out in the securities market. They're carrying them on their books and they're less willing to loan to businesses and individuals.

CLANCY: It's no secret, politics and economics go hand-in-hand. Anything about any of the candidates out there that either makes Wall Street -- makes people feel good or bad?

FERGUSON: Obama is a bit of an uncertainty, to say the least. Hillary Clinton I think the various sectors can price that in a little bit differently, more certainly. The Republican race, who knows what John McCain's economic policies would be. Generally speaking, Wall Street likes low taxes, likes easy money, likes a favorable regulatory climate. But at this point, the politics is too much of a fog, I'm afraid.

CLANCY: For investors, some people are saying, you know forget that, the stay the course, this isn't the time for it. Duck out, or at least move your investments. How do international markets play into that?

FERGUSON: Good luck. Most of these markets are priced as exorbitantly, if you will, as the U.S. market was. The UK market, UK economy is very shaky at the moment. You can find niche markets like Taiwan, Thailand, that have not risen appreciably but no major markets. China and India, both those markets are trading way up. Japan has been flat, but so has its economy.

CLANCY: Tim Ferguson of "Forbes," I want to thank you for coming in here and sharing a bit of your thoughts. I'm sure that you've got a lot of things to do putting together the magazine but we thank you for taking time to be with us.

FERGUSON: Wish I had more cheer for you Jim.

CLANCY: I wish you did too.

Let's go back up to New Hampshire. As we were saying, voters coming out of the polls worried about the economy. Want to get a final thought here from my colleague, Colleen McEdwards -- Colleen?

MCEDWARDS: So interesting to hear you talking there Jim about recession or no recession. And you know I have this little private wonder of my own. You know, Hillary Clinton pulling this out at the end, and among democrats, the number one issue, at least for the democrat voters, was the economy.

And I sort of wonder -- I mean there are a million issues, of course, and everybody is going to be picking this apart -- but I do wonder how many of those Democratic voters got to the polls last night and thought about the economy and thought about Hillary Clinton, remembering the good economic times during Bill Clinton's tenure, not ready maybe to take a chance on Barack Obama. Who knows? But it's a thought.

You know, Jim, project six months down the road in this race. If there is -- if there is a recession, if it gets ugly, what does that mean for this race? Does that favor the republicans? Does that favor the democrats? Does it favor an establishment candidate or someone with great big ideas? Maybe that's a conversation we should start to have. Jim, back to you.

CLANCY: Well, it will be one that we do have. Colleen McEdwards coming off her own good run up there in New Hampshire. Colleen, great to have you with us. She's going to be out on the campaign trail in the weeks and the months ahead. You can learn much more about the U.S. presidential race on our special Web site, cnn.com/election. Going to take you directly to in-depth coverage, no matter where you are in the world. You'll fine the latest news from the campaign trail and profiles of the main candidates. Again, all of it is waiting for you at cnn.com/election.

That has to be it for this hour. For now, I'm Jim Clancy. Don't go away, there's more news straight ahead on CNN.

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